NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Exactly 2 Touchdown Passes (+185) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The closer we get to Super Bowl LVIII, the more it looks like the 49ers will be a 2-point favorite with a total of 47.5 points at the top-rated sportsbooks.
However, Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate underdog performer with a 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU record in his career. He also has a great history of facing the 49ers with a 3-0 record and big numbers in each game.
This is why he is still the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP despite the 49ers being favored to win the game.
We went through the player props to find our favorite NFL odds for Super Bowl LVIII. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
We have 4 picks for Patrick Mahomes in the big game.
Passing Volume
- Over 36.5 Pass Attempts
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Eagles held the ball for nearly 36 minutes and Mahomes only attempted 27 passes.
That should not be the case this year.
The Chiefs have a much better defense, and it would be easy to see the 49ers have more volatile results, mixing big plays with quick 3-and-out drives or turnovers.
The Chiefs should get their share of opportunities this game, and Mahomes has gone over 36.5 pass attempts in 12-of-19 games this year. They feel comfortable in Allegiant Stadium having faced the Raiders every year since 2020. They will run the offense through Mahomes even if Isiah Pacheco is still an important part of this game for Kansas City.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at Bovada
How Many Touchdown Passes?
- Exactly 2 Touchdown Passes
You can tease this down to taking the over 1.5 touchdown passes. However, there is good value with a prop of Mahomes throwing exactly 2 touchdown passes in this game.
He had 2 against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, and he had a rushing touchdown in that game, something he still has not done all of 2023, so that may be something to keep in mind too.
However, the main reason to like exactly 2 is that it’s the best number to account for Mahomes having a good game in the context of his 2023 season. He’s only gone over 2.5 touchdowns in 2-of-19 games this year, and despite the recent struggles of the San Francisco defense, it still is a much better unit than the Bears and Chargers, whom Mahomes had his biggest touchdown totals against in 2023.
By picking 2 touchdowns, which he’s done 8 times this year, you pick a number that can account for the possibility of Pacheco rushing in a score or Mahomes himself rushing one in for the 1st time this season.
He should play better between the halves and finish with more than 1 touchdown like in the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore when the Chiefs scored no points after halftime.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Exactly 2 Touchdown Passes (+185) at Bovada
The Interception Streak
Mahomes has been playing close to mistake-free football for the past 2 postseasons.
He has not thrown an interception in his last 6 playoff games, which is an NFL record. Only Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, and Matt Ryan had 5-game streaks without throwing an interception in a playoff game (min. 20 attempts each game).
With that said, a 7th playoff game in a row without a pick for Mahomes would be 2 games beyond the record.
The thing about streaks is they always end, and the further you push that streak into record territory, the harder it is to keep it going.
The 49ers intercepted Mahomes twice in Super Bowl LIV. They picked him off to start the meeting last year too. They tied for a league-high 22 interceptions in the regular season, and they picked off Jordan Love twice in the divisional round despite Love throwing 1 pick in the 2nd half of the season.
A pick can happen by accident, as Kansas City fans know well with the way Kadarius Toney has tipped multiple picks to defenses this year. However, we are going to bank on the streak ending and the 49ers finding a way to intercept Mahomes in this game.
That doesn’t mean it will win them the game, because both quarterbacks threw multiple picks in Super Bowl LIV when these teams last played.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-105) at Bovada
Solid Yardage Game Too
For our last Mahomes prop, we are taking over 262.5 passing yards.
Mahomes has hit up the 49ers for 314 (2018), 286 (Super Bowl LIV), and 423 yards (2022) in his career.
You have the potential for this being a shootout with San Francisco’s elite offense, meaning he has to take more chances and throw more than he did against the Ravens when they could babysit a 10-point lead for most of the 2nd half. This also feeds into the narrative for our picks for over 36.5 attempts and over 0.5 passes intercepted.
You could see the Chiefs having to come back from a double-digit deficit as they have in all 3 of Mahomes’ Super Bowl starts and his last 2 starts against the 49ers.
You could also see him just having a big game against a defense that has struggled to close this season. Jared Goff should have had a 300-yard game with ease in the NFC title game if Josh Reynolds wasn’t so bad at dropping the ball in the 3rd quarter.
We’ll trust Mahomes to deliver a strong game that gives the Chiefs a good chance to win their 3rd championship with him.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
It’s the Super Bowl, so our super-sized prop picks also have 3 picks for San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy.
Is It Purdy’s Night to Shine or Stumble?
Brock Purdy’s accuracy this postseason has left something to be desired.
He’s had bad throw rates of 29.7% (Packers) and 23.3% (Lions) according to Pro Football Reference. These are 2 of his 4 worst games this season in that metric.
To his credit, he figured things out in the 2nd half in both games and the 49ers won. However, the Chiefs are a much better defense than the Lions and Packers, and they allowed the fewest points after halftime this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 6-of-19 passers to throw for 250 yards this year, but that does include Easton Stick of the Chargers in a Week 18 game when they rested key starters. That means 5-of-18 in games that mattered, though some quarterbacks like Aidan O’Connell (248) and Zach Wilson (245) did come very close to going over 248.5 yards.
Overall, the Chiefs defend well, they should have success limiting Brandon Aiyuk on the outside, and they held Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa twice each under 248.5 yards this year.
Also, Purdy’s numbers tend to get worse on the road.
While he’s gone over 248.5 passing yards in 12-of-18 games this year, all 6 times he went under were on the road. All 7 of his games with a bad throw rate of at least 20% were also on the road.
This is a neutral-field game, but it is still not a home game. We’ll count on the Chiefs to shine on defense one more time and hold Purdy under. Besides, it might be more of a Christian McCaffrey night anyway.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Run, Purdy, Run
Something Purdy did exceptionally well against the Lions in the title game was scramble.
He used his legs to the tune of 48 rushing yards, including gains on some of the key plays in that game.
Purdy has gone over 12.5 rushing yards in 3-of-4 playoff games that he started and finished in his career. He only did it in 4-of-16 regular season games this year. Maybe in the biggest game of his life and after the success he had last time out, he will take those runs instead of forcing balls for interceptions.
The Chiefs have left some lanes open for running quarterbacks, and they played Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last 2 weeks, who both cleared 50 yards. Purdy is clearly not on that level as a runner, but it would not be crazy to see him run a couple of times and pick this up for the over.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-130) at BetOnline
You Can Ride, but You Can’t Hide
Even though we just said Purdy may scramble more to avoid throwing bad picks, that doesn’t mean both can’t happen. It just did in the NFC Championship Game when Purdy rushed for 48 yards but also forced a pick on a 3rd-and-long when he was pressured.
Purdy is facing a Kansas City defense that is No. 2 in sacks and pressure rate. They will blitz and bring different looks with a bye week to prepare under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who once rattled Tom Brady at the height of his career in Super Bowl XLII.
They will have a plan for Purdy too, who threw his 1st NFL pick against the Chiefs when he came into the game late last year.
Remember, these teams are No. 2 and No. 3 in points allowed this year.
We like both defenses to get interceptions in this game just like they did in the last 2 meetings between these teams.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-135) at Bovada
Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)
It will be very disappointing if this one does not hit.
The Chiefs did not give up a lot of receiving yardage to running backs in the regular season, but we have seen their last 2 playoff opponents have some success.
The Bills had 8 catches for 62 yards from running backs James Cook, Latavius Murray, and Ty Johnson. The Ravens barely gave their running backs any touches, but Justice Hill had 4 catches for 39 yards and Gus Edwards had a 16-yard reception.
Chrisitan McCaffrey is better than all of those running backs, and he is a better receiver than almost any back in the league right now except for maybe Austin Ekeler. McCaffrey can produce big plays in the passing game.
He has gone over 33.5 receiving yards in 8 games this season. He also had 42 yards against Detroit in the title game.
When McCaffrey made his team debut with the 49ers in 2022 following the trade from Carolina, his 1st opponent was Kansas City. He only had a limited grasp of the playbook, and he only played 23 snaps that day. However, he still had 2 catches for 24 yards in that game.
The Pick
This game is the reason the 49ers traded for McCaffrey.
He needs to be featured as both a runner and receiver. Whether he gets there by volume or a big play, he needs to go over 33.5 receiving yards if the 49ers are going to have a successful night against this defense that defends wide receivers very well.
NFL Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at Bovada
Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)
If you look at the way the Chiefs have attacked the 49ers over the years, it is usually with their wide receivers.
Not only did Tyreek Hill have that memorable 44-yard catch in Super Bowl LIV, but Sammy Watkins also had 5 catches for 98 yards in that game.
Last year when the teams met in San Francisco, the Chiefs no longer had those top wide receivers. However, Mahomes still threw for 423 yards with big plays from his new guys. JuJu Smith-Schuster broke a tackle on a big touchdown and finished with 124 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished the game off with 111 yards.
The wide receivers changed again for the Chiefs this year and they have been lacking. However, rookie Rashee Rice has stepped up and become a No. 1 wideout for Mahomes and someone he can rely on.
Rice has gone over 66.5 yards in 6 games this year, and one of those was the time he had 107 yards at Allegiant Stadium against the Raiders in Week 12.
That was also the week the Chiefs seemed to start focusing their offense more around Rice and Travis Kelce instead of trying to get all these other receivers involved like Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore.
The Pick
Rice has been held under 50 yards the last 2 playoff games, but the bye week should be useful to his health after he was shaken up in the Buffalo game.
Rice had 8 catches against Baltimore but for only 46 yards, as they keyed in on the short throws in the 2nd half. He also had a big touchdown wiped out by a weak holding call before halftime.
However, the 49ers are most vulnerable in the secondary, and if any wide receiver is going to have a big game for the Chiefs in this Super Bowl, it is Rice.
We’ll trust the rookie to go over for Mahomes.
NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Deebo Samuel was only a rookie when these teams met in Super Bowl LIV to end the 2019 season, but you could see he was starting to figure things out as a unique talent.
He finished that game with 5 catches for 39 yards and 3 runs for 53 yards.
Samuel has not scored a touchdown in either game against the Chiefs in his career, but he is a dual threat with the ability to score on a short run in the red zone. He is also the strongest receiver after the catch in the NFL. He gives Brock Purdy a much better target in this game than Brandon Aiyuk, who should have his hands full with corners L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie.
Samuel has not scored in 4 straight playoff games, but that is misleading as Purdy was injured on the opening drive in the 2022 NFC Championship Game, leaving the 49ers without an effective quarterback. Samuel left the Green Bay game this year after he was injured on the opening drive too. He returned against Detroit and looked great with 96 yards on 11 touches.
That shoulder should feel even better with this bye week.
The Pick
Unless you think Christian McCaffrey is going to score every touchdown for the 49ers in this game, you have to start looking at the other studs on this offense.
Samuel can get the ball in a variety of ways, and you know this one is personal after losing a Super Bowl to the Chiefs his rookie year.
We’ll trust him to deliver his best game yet against the Chiefs and find the end zone for his team.
NFL Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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