Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will take more bets than any game this year. The 49ers are a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 47 points.
You have almost 2 weeks to check out all the NFL odds available as you look for the best value bets and the perfect game script for a same-game parlay… or two.
But what are some of the trends from this season and recent that you should consider for your bets? We also have some injuries to watch that could impact how the game plays out in Las Vegas.
Before you visit your favorite top-rated sportsbook to make a bet, consider some of the data we’ve already collected on this epic matchup in Super Bowl LVIII.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Bet Against Mahomes at Your Own Risk
The Chiefs appear to be underdogs again despite some quick line movement in the 24 hours after Championship Sunday.
The 49ers have gone from a 2.5-point favorite to a 1-point favorite back to a 1.5-point favorite.
This is just fine for the Chiefs. They are now 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU as underdogs with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. He is about to start his 4th Super Bowl. He is not playing with a toe injury or a high-ankle sprain like he did in Super Bowls LIV and LVII.
Mahomes has already proven he can win as a road underdog in the playoffs. He did it in Buffalo and Baltimore this postseason. He has come back from 2nd-half deficits of 10 points to win in the Super Bowl twice.
Atypical Underdogs
Mahomes and the Chiefs are also very comfortable in Allegiant Stadium in Vegas, where they are 4-0 since 2020. All those games were against the Raiders, of course. However, the Chiefs scored at least 31 points in every game. Also, Mahomes has thrown 10 touchdowns to 1 interception in that building.
Mahomes is 3-0 against the 49ers in his career. He has totaled at least 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in each of those games. This includes his 31-20 win in Super Bowl LIV when he won his first championship and Super Bowl MVP.
Also, underdogs are 8-4 ATS this postseason. This is a big change from the 2023 regular season. Back then, underdogs in games between teams that made the playoffs were only 19-26-2 ATS (42.6%).
The 49ers have been favored in every game this season, but they are only 9-10 ATS. San Francisco may end up being the favorite by the time the ball is kicked off. However, the Chiefs are not your typical underdog.
Bet against them at your own risk.
Think of a Close Game
These teams have played games decided by 3-to-7 points in both the divisional round and Conference Championship Games.
Expectations should be for another close game here in the Super Bowl. However, the final score may not always reflect that.
The 49ers just tied an NFC Championship Game record by coming back from 17 points down at halftime to beat Detroit 34-31. For a team that had 1 win by fewer than 12 points all year before the playoffs, the 49ers have just posted consecutive 2nd-half comeback wins by 3 points each against the Packers and Lions.
These 49ers are better offensively than in the last Super Bowl matchup. Nonetheless, the defenses Mahomes faced were better in 2019 and 2022 when the Chiefs dropped 31 and 44 points on the 49ers.
In both of those games, the Chiefs came back from a 10-point deficit and still won by double digits.
In fact, the 49ers made it a 28-23 game early in the 4th quarter last year before the Chiefs blew things open with 3 straight scores to win 44-23. It was similar to Super Bowl LIV. They went from a 20-10 deficit in the 4th quarter to a 31-20 win in the blink of an eye.
Narrow Margins
This year’s Kansas City team is different, and the team does not go on those explosive scoring runs as often. The Chiefs only have 3 games this year with more than 27 points scored. Also, the defense has not allowed any team to score more than 27 points either.
Since 2001, underdogs in the Super Bowl are 15-6 ATS (71.4%). Even better, only 4 of the last 21 Super Bowl favorites have been able to win by more than 6 points, and that includes the 2019 Chiefs against San Francisco after their 21-point turnaround to end the game.
Overall, 18 of the last 20 Super Bowls have been within a score in the 4th quarter. That could be something to keep in mind if you are doing live betting on the night of the game.
The Repeat Drought
Repeating as Super Bowl champions is an extremely hard thing to do because winning even one Super Bowl is difficult for any team.
No one has done it since the 2003-04 Patriots, which is why this is the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion.
But what if a team is a game away from repeating? We looked at all 14 teams to reach consecutive Super Bowls with a win away from repeating and how they fared:
- 1966-67 Packers: Won Super Bowls I and II (1-0)
- 1972-73 Dolphins: Won Super Bowls VII and VIII (2-0)
- 1974-75 Steelers: Won Super Bowls IX and X (3-0)
- 1977-78 Cowboys: Won Super Bowl XII and lost Super Bowl XIII (3-1)
- 1978-79 Steelers: Won Super Bowls XIII and XIV (4-1)
- 1982-83 Redskins: Won Super Bowl XVII and lost Super Bowl XVIII (4-2)
- 1988-89 49ers: Won Super Bowls XXIII and XXIV (5-2)
- 1992-93 Cowboys: Won Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII (6-2)
- 1996-97 Packers: Won Super Bowl XXXI and lost Super Bowl XXXII (6-3)
- 1997-98 Broncos: Won Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII (7-3)
- 2003-04 Patriots: Won Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX (8-3)
- 2013-14 Seahawks: Won Super Bowl XLVIII and lost Super Bowl XLIX (8-4)
- 2016-17 Patriots: Won Super Bowl LI and lost Super Bowl LII (8-5)
- 2019-20 Chiefs: Won Super Bowl LIV and lost Super Bowl LV (8-6)
This used to work out well with the team going 8-3 at the repeat, and each loss happened to be to a team that was able to win multiple championships in a short period of time as well.
Chiefs’ Unique Feat
The last 3 attempts in the last decade all failed, and no one failed harder than the 2014 Seahawks, who blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter and then threw an interception from the 1-yard line to lose 28-24 to the Patriots. That kicked off another dynasty run of titles for the Patriots, who came close to repeating again in 2017 if not for the performance of Nick Foles and the Eagles.
But it was Tom Brady with a different team in Tampa Bay denying Mahomes and these Chiefs from pulling it off in 2020 in what is by far the worst playoff game and loss for Mahomes in a 31-9 final.
With the 2022-23 Chiefs confirmed as the 15th team to make this list, they have already made history by becoming the only team to have 2 attempts in a row at repeating with 1 more win before any other team in the league.
The Chiefs are already a historical team, but we’ll see if they can end the repeat drought after they’ve earned a 2nd shot to do it. At least they won’t have to deal with any of Brady’s dark voodoo this time around.
Injuries to Watch
It wouldn’t be a normal Super Bowl if there weren’t some injuries to monitor.
Thankfully, it looks like both teams have avoided any major injuries to key players that will put their status in doubt like we’ve seen with many past Super Bowls.
The 49ers are healthier than the Chiefs right now.
Linebacker Dre Greenlaw and running back Christian McCaffrey both suffered stingers in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, but both would have been cleared to finish the game and should have no concerns for the Super Bowl against Kansas City.
The Chiefs have some more pressing issues that can affect the running game differential in this matchup. The Chiefs need a good ground attack to keep up with what McCaffrey and the 49ers will do, and they could get a boost there if 3-time champion guard Joe Thuney can return from a pectoral injury.
However, signs are not positive he will be back in time for the Super Bowl. Thuney missed the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore, and his replacement Nick Allegretti allowed a sack in his absence. The Chiefs also struggled to get a push on the ground as Isiah Pacheco averaged under 3.0 yards per carry.
Challenges in Absence
On the other side of the ball, it may be more optimistic that the Chiefs can get linebacker Willie Gay back after he also missed Sunday’s game with a neck injury. The Chiefs survived Gay’s absence even though he would have been the ideal player to spy Lamar Jackson as a scrambler. But Gay should have a solid chance to return for Vegas and help stop the run against McCaffrey and Brock Purdy if the quarterback decides to take off like he did against the Lions.
The worst injury news for the Chiefs is that backup defensive end Charles Omenihu tore his ACL, and his season is over. He was 3rd on the team with 7.0 sacks this season and he forced a strip-sack of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore in the AFC title game. But the Chiefs still have a pair of double-digit sack pass rushers in Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
Injury Controversy
Finally, if there has ever been a story where a player having an injury was a positive for the team, it would be the situation with wide receiver Kadarius Toney, who has not played since Week 15. The Chiefs have reported him to have hip and ankle injuries, but Toney took to Instagram Live over the weekend to drop a profanity-heavy message that he doesn’t have those injuries and he is not hurt. The Chiefs insist they have filed accurate injury reports for Toney.
Injury might be a convenient way for the Chiefs to sideline Toney, but they could always just bench him and make him inactive for the games.
He has been detrimental to the team since Week 1 when he turned a sure-fire catch into a pick-6 for the Lions, dropped a pass that would have put the Chiefs in game-winning field goal range, and then did the same catch-into-pick thing against the Patriots in his last appearance. He also lined up offsides against Buffalo a week before to negate his own touchdown, a play you may have seen a million times this year.
It does not feel coincidental that the Chiefs have looked better on offense since Toney has been inactive. They should keep him out of the Super Bowl too if they want to win this game.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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