49ers vs. Seahawks Thursday Night Football Picks: Geno Smith Set To Light Up SF

San Francisco’s Defense So Far            

If we expect San Francisco to cover the spread as the favorite, then we should like its defense. So far, the 49ers have held two teams under 20 points.

Those two teams were the Jets, when 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers was returning from an Achilles injury to make his first start since January, 2023, and the Patriots, whom various statistics cast as one of the worst offenses.

Otherwise, San Francisco has allowed 23 to the Vikings, 27 to the Rams, and 24 to the Cardinals.

Seattle has had one of the most productive offenses, positioning it to perform on offense at least as well as the best of San Francisco’s previous opponents thus far.

San Francisco’s Disappointing Pass Rush 

San Francisco’s mounting injury problems are hindering its ability to mount a disruptive pass rush.

When Arizona pulled off a significant upset by beating the 49ers last week, quarterback Kyler Murray was an effective runner and was sacked all of one time.

The 49ers are missing defensive linemen Javon Hargrave, Drake Jackson, and Yetur Gross-Matos. This trio combined for 14.5 sacks last year despite missing several games.

San Francisco was hoping for Leonard Floyd to pan out. However, this free agent signing has struggled to win reps or achieve pressure.

Why This Matters 

When Seattle lost last week to the Giants, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith threw for the fewest number of yards that he has all season. He struggled largely due to the Giants’ pass rush, which sacked him seven times.

With the 49ers unable to replicate New York’s pass rushing prowess, Geno will have a much easier time in the pocket — although even last week he still managed 284 passing yards and a 70 percent completion rate.

Seattle’s Weapon-Laden Pass Attack 

San Francisco’s pass defense will be highly vulnerable to Seattle’s pass attack. The 49ers failed to own a high-ranking pass defense despite the fact that, based on the number of passing yards, it has largely avoided productive quarterbacks.

They did face Matthew Stafford of the Rams, although he led the Rams to a 27-point output without his two best wide receivers, who were injured.

Geno Smith is one of the NFL’s leaders in passing yards. He benefits from a stacked group of wide receivers, which features DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Heading into the season, PFF ranked Seattle’s wide receiver corps as tenth-best. Former All-Pro selection Metcalf is arguably the best of this bunch.

Don’t Forget Kenneth Walker III

Geno Smith largely struggled to stay upright last week because his coaching staff’s offensive game plan let him down.

The Seahawks abandoned the run for no understandable reason, making it easier for the opponent’s pass rushers to target the quarterback because they didn’t have to worry about Seattle’s run game.

Seattle does have a strong rush attack, led by Kenneth Walker III and his 5.7 YPC.

On September 30, Seattle faced a Lions team that had one of the stoutest run defenses. Impressively, he ran for 80 yards on 6.7 YPC. He was likely very efficient in his other game, against Denver’s solid defense.

One must expect Seattle’s coaching staff to wise-up and return to its prior level of confidence in its consistently effective starting running back.

San Francisco’s Vulnerable Run Defense 

As evident in its games against Minnesota and, most recently, Arizona, San Francisco’s run defense has struggled when it had to worry about the opponent’s passing attack.

Seattle’s rush attack will thrive because the 49ers, especially when their front seven is so beat-up, will have to worry about Geno Smith and his wide receivers, in addition to worrying about Seattle’s running backs.

When San Francisco’s run defense was at its best before this season, it counted on a healthy Arik Armstead at defensive tackle.

Armstead is no longer with the team. Instead, the 49ers are having to rely on guys like Maliek Collins, who has always been a poor run-stopper according to PFF grades.

Seattle’s running back will not only be an effective runner, but he will also replicate the pass-catching productivity that other running backs this season are achieving every week against San Francisco’s defense.

Seattle’s Effective Cornerback Group

As measured by yards per target and yards per reception, Seattle has done a terrific job of limiting opposing wide receivers.

Detroit star Amon-Ra St. Brown, for example, failed to reach 50 receiving yards in his game against Seattle, which is rare for him.

Seattle benefits from having a stacked group of cornerbacks: Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, and Tre Brown are all well-reputed.

Witherspoon and Woolen are former Pro Brown selections. Woolen is said to have had a down season last year. However, as measured by the passer rating allowed, he is bouncing back strongly. 

Brown was, according to PFF’s grades, the best in press coverage last year. With superstar running back Christian McCaffrey still injured, San Francisco will lean on its wide receivers.

The 49ers will also need to use its wide receivers well in order to keep pace with Seattle’s offense. Seattle has a group of guys to limit them.

Takeaway

A comfortable Geno Smith will lead a balanced offensive attack against San Francisco’s vulnerable defense whose success is limited to its games against one-dimensional and lifeless offenses.

Seattle has the weapons at running back and wide receiver to support the yards-amassing Smith and, ultimately, to reach upwards of 30 points.

With this sort of outlook for its offense, the Seahawks make a terrific home underdog.

In order to keep pace with them, San Francisco will have to rely on its wide receivers, who, however, will be contained by Seattle’s deep and decorated group of cornerbacks.

NFL Pick: Seahawks +3 (-105) at BetOnline

Seahawks +3 (-105)

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