The second round of the 2023 playoffs is just around the corner; follow these five betting tips if you want to make smarter NBA picks.
The first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs has already delivered plenty of excitement – and betting value. If you followed our award-swatting article about first-round betting trends, your NBA picks made good coin betting the Under (which is 13-9 since we wrote that) and home teams in the early series games (they went 8-0 SU and ATS in Game 2).
Alas, not everything goes according to plan: Favorites of eight points or more at the top US sportsbooks also swept their next four opportunities SU and ATS after we weighed in. But those were all home teams, of course, so there was a de facto hedge built around those basketball picks.
Even though we’re still a few games away from the second round, this is the right time to take a closer look at what might be in store for us. We’ll be looking at some more NBA betting trends; we’ll also make note of one very important injury which you should know about, and why it’s so important.
1. Keep Pounding the Under
The second round means a further increase in the number of casual bettors entering the marketplace, betting the over, and giving us better betting odds on the under. As far as specific Round 2 betting trends are concerned, the under is 11-5 in Game 1 the past four seasons, while Game 3 has seen the under go 17-10-1 since 2016.
That Game 3 under trend gets even stronger when the home team is down 0-2. In those situations, they really lock down on defense when they get back to playing in front of their own fans, generating a 12-2 record for the Under.
2. Joel Embiid: Overrated
We’re not saying Embiid isn’t one of the best players in the league – he’s just not MVP material. The Philadelphia 76ers are 12-5 SU and ATS this year when Embiid isn’t available, including Saturday’s 96-88 win over the Brooklyn Nets to sweep their first-round series.
It’s one of the oldest tricks in the book: Bet on the team with the missing superstar. That player’s impact is usually less than what the betting public thinks it will be, and that goes extra for Embiid, who may very well win this year’s MVP even though Nikola Jokic outperformed him during the regular season.
The question is whether Embiid (sprained knee) will play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. It’s looking more likely than it did late last week, when head coach Doc Rivers said Embiid was “50% at best,” but you’ll definitely want to keep an eye on his status as tip-off approaches.
3. Rest Matters
Here’s another potentially good sign for Philly fans: Teams who finish off their first-round opponents early have won 10 of their last 14 second-round series against opponents who played at least two more games before advancing.
The Sixers will face the winner of the Boston-Atlanta series, which the Celtics lead 3-1 heading into Game 5 this Tuesday.
4. Keep Fading Big Favorites – at Home
Just like the Under, it’s worth sticking with this game plan during the second round, but make sure it’s the home favorites, who are 34-18 SU and 22-30 ATS since 2013 when laying at least seven points – although they did go 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS last year.
5. Forget the ZigZag (Mostly)
That old chestnut about betting Game 1 losers in Game 2 just doesn’t hold water; they’re on an 11-16 SU and 12-15 ATS downturn (including 2-2 SU and ATS last year).
Keep our previous tip in mind, though, as these teams have also cashed five of their last seven games when getting at least 7.5 points.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
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