The last week of the NFL regular season is usually a mess for sports bettors. Mess? I mean golden opportunity; with so many teams folding their tents early and mailing in their season finales, there should be ample betting value on the Week 18 NFL odds board—if you can stay on top of the chaos.
Fortunately, there are still a handful of games on the schedule where at least one of the teams involved is still fighting for their playoff lives. That means fewer shenanigans to worry about, which allows us to approach these teams as we normally would with our NFL picks.
Information is still power, though. Here are five things to pay attention to when it comes to those playoff-hungry clubs in Week 18:
Lions vs. Packers: NFC No. 7 Seed at Stake
Of all the games on this week’s schedule, the Sunday Night Football matchup between the 8-8 Detroit Lions and 8-8 Green Bay Packers is the most intriguing. There’s only one Wild Card berth up for grabs in the NFC; the Packers will claim it if they beat Detroit, while the Lions need a win here and a little help from elsewhere—more on that in a moment.
As you may recall from our Lions-Packers preview, we recommended Under 48.5 as our primary NFL pick for this contest, and it’s an even better bet now that the total has moved as high as 49.5. The weather forecast for Sunday night remains the same: mainly clear and temperatures around 20 degrees, which is a bit warmer than average for early January in Green Bay.
Seahawks Have a Chance
Here’s a very strange situation: The 8-8 Seahawks currently hold down the No. 7 spot in the NFC standings, but they don’t control their own playoff destiny. For that matter, neither do the No. 8 Lions. Green Bay will vault over both of them with a win Sunday since they own the conference record tiebreaker.
In their infinite wisdom, the league decided not to have all the relevant Week 18 games kick off at the same time; Seattle will host the Los Angeles Rams for a late afternoon start, with the ‘Hawks moving from -3 to -6.5 since the NFL lines opened at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
This means the Lions might not actually have anything to play for but pride Sunday night. If the Seahawks beat L.A., Packers -4.5 could turn out to be a bargain price after all. Hmmmm.
Titans vs. Jaguars: AFC South at Stake
Meanwhile, in the AFC, there are two playoff berths yet to be claimed—and the 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars are in the best position of the five teams left in the hunt. Jacksonville leads the AFC South by one game over the 7-9 Tennessee Titans; these two teams meet Saturday night at TIAA Bank Field, with the Jags favored by 6.5 points at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).
The Titans will claim the division title with a win Saturday, but it’ll be third-string QB Joshua Dobbs at the controls, with Ryan Tannehill (high-ankle sprain) on injured reserve and back-up Malik Willis ineffective in three starts. If Tennessee loses, they’re out; Jacksonville can still earn a Wild Card if they don’t win, but they’ll need more than just a little help from elsewhere—more on that in a moment.
Win-And-In for Patriots
After all their ups and downs, the 8-8 New England Patriots can still claim an AFC Wild Card berth if they beat the Buffalo Bills, -7.5 home faves at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), this Sunday in their early matinee. Unlike Seattle, the No. 7 Patriots control their playoff destiny and will earn a Wild Card even if they lose to Buffalo, provided they get some of that outside help.
The 12-3 Bills have already won the AFC East, but they’re still fighting for the No. 1 overall seed, and that fight is on pause after Monday night’s game against the 11-4 Cincinnati Bengals was postponed due to Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin’s on-field cardiac arrest incident. The league has yet to announce if and when that game will be made up, Hamlin’s health being the obvious priority right now.
Dolphins, Steelers Still Alive
There are two more AFC teams with 8-8 records who can crash the postseason with a win and some help. The Dolphins have to beat the New York Jets, +1 road dogs at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), in their early Sunday matinee, then hope the Patriots lose to Buffalo.
The Steelers have the tougher road to the playoffs. They need a win over the Cleveland Browns, +2.5 road dogs at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review), in their early Sunday start, and they need both Miami and New England to lose.
And finally, wrapping up our potential AFC playoff scenarios, the Jaguars will earn a Wild Card if they don’t beat Tennessee, provided both Miami and New England lose, while the Patriots can fall to Buffalo and still get in if Miami and Pittsburgh lose.
Sunshine State locals, keep in mind that you can make your bets at one of these Florida betting sites. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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