NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals to Win AFC (+575) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There is plenty of talent in the AFC this season and it’s as good a time as any to predict the AFC champion so that we can get our future bets in and make some money right before the Super Bowl begins with our AFC winner!
Key Facts
- Earning the best conference record, which triggers an automatic first-round bye, has proven to be a powerful formula over the last 10 seasons as the team doing so has won the AFC championship in 7 of the last 10 years.
- The Chiefs (12-4) in 2018, Ravens (14-2) in 2019, and Titans (12-5) in 2021 were all given a first-round bye as regular season conference winners but all failed to win the AFC title.
- However, in the 2020 and 2022 seasons, the Chiefs won the AFC regular season with 14-2 and 14-3 records, respectively, and subsequently won the AFC championship. Perhaps this means the regular season conference winner becoming the AFC title champ trend is back on track?
- The Bengals could very well have the best trio of receivers in the game with the immaculate Ja’Marr Chase complemented superbly by Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
Deductive Reasoning
There are 16 teams in each conference with seven making the playoffs, including the four division winners and the three wild card teams determined by those non-division winners with the best records. The division winner with the best overall record receives a first-round bye while the division winner with the second-best record will play the wild card team with the worst record, etc.…
Therefore, it’s up to us to analyze which teams will occupy which spots. And do we automatically assume that the team with the best record, and by default the luxury of the first-round bye which allows them to lick their wounds and prepare for the second round, will be the eventual AFC champ?
Well, earning the best conference record which triggers an automatic first-round bye has proven to be a powerful formula as the team doing so has won the AFC championship in 7 of the last 10 years.
Take Into Account
However, we should also note that those three instances in which the conference regular season winner did not win the AFC crown have occurred in the last five years which means only twice did the regular season victor become the conference champion from 2018-2022.
The Chiefs (12-4) in 2018, Ravens (14-2) in 2019, and Titans (12-5) in 2021 were all given a first-round bye as regular season conference winners but all failed to win the AFC title.
Yet, in the 2020 and 2022 seasons, the Chiefs won the AFC regular season with 14-2 and 14-3 records, respectively, and won the AFC championship. Perhaps this means the regular season conference winner becoming the AFC title champ trend is back on track?
AFC Crystal Ball
After gazing into my crystal ball, I have found the AFC playoff matchups after the regular season is over and will unveil their regular season records as well as the eventual AFC winner and the corresponding conference odds over at BetOnline.
2023 AFC First-Round Playoff Pairings
- AFC East Winner Buffalo Bills (14-3) – Gets Automatic Bye
- AFC North Winner Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) vs. Wild Card #3 New England Patriots (10-6)
- AFC West Winner Los Angeles Chargers (12-5) vs. Wild Card #2 Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
- AFC South Winner Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) 4 vs. Wild Card #1 Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Sorry Chiefs fans, I don’t see this year’s iteration being crowned AFC West division champs and overcoming the challenges they faced last season when Tyreek Hill left the nest and fled to South Beach to play catch with Tua.
No, there is a dearth of quality wide receivers in Kansas City and although tight end Travis Kelce is one of the best in the business, he will be 34 in October and his skills could fade fast. When you’re No. 1 receiver is Kadarius Toney with nothing surrounding him then I don’t care who is pulling the trigger, even the legendary Patrick Mahomes.
2023 AFC 2nd Round Playoff Pairings
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Forget about the Super Bowl, playoff weekend in the AFC will be explosive. Young, dynamite, quarterbacks dueling for conference supremacy. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes airing it out while another electric pair of passers, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert go toe-to-toe.
The best part of all of this is that any one of these teams could emerge victorious. But I believe the 2023 Bills have too many weapons and a better defense than the Chiefs which is why they won the regular season and will go to the conference finals.
Meanwhile, experience will win the day as Joe Burrow has it and Justin Herbert does not. The 2023 Bengals could very well have the best trio of receivers in the game with the immaculate Ja’Marr Chase complemented superbly by Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
2023 AFC Conference Championship
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
I believe the Bills will wind up with a better regular season record than the Bengals because I don’t have confidence in the overhyped Jets nor do I believe the Dolphins will be better than their 9-8 record from last year. The New England Patriots will surpass all expectations but will bow in the first round of the playoffs.
The Pick
Therefore, I expect the Bills to clean up and win five of their six division contests. However, the road won’t be nearly as easy for the Bengals who will see vastly improved divisional competition and will likely either split or go 4-2 in those home and away contests versus Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.
Yet, when the big moment comes and the white-hot spotlight shines, I expect the Bengals to do to the Bills what they did last year when they invaded Buffalo, spit at the Bills Mafia, and swagger out with a 27-10 victory. Yes, the Bengals make it again to the Super Bowl under the steady hand and golden arm of Joe Burrow!
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals to Win AFC (+575) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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