College Football Pick: LSU +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
If the LSU Tigers are +3 at Death Valley, the law says we have to fade the Alabama Crimson Tide for Saturday’s college football picks.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium
Last Week’s Play
I hate it when a plan doesn’t come together. Our winning streak on small home faves at college football’s toughest stadiums came to an end last week when Ohio State beat Penn State (+3 at Beaver Stadium) 20-13. The Nittany Lions had their moments, but they let OSU escape University Park with the win and the cash.
Undeterred, we’re sticking with the plan here at the ranch for our Week 11 NCAAF picks. How could we possibly pass up grabbing the No. 14 LSU Tigers (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) as 3-point home dogs versus the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)? It’s just the right thing to do, and a tasty way to do it.
Is LSU Better Than Alabama?
Nope – at least not according to the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys, where the Crimson Tide check in at No. 6 overall (No. 6 offense, No. 9 defense, No. 18 special teams) heading into Saturday’s contest. That’s six spots head of No. 12 LSU (No. 5 offense, No. 29 defense, No. 76 special teams).
It’s hard to imagine a world where the SEC is underrated, but here we are: Neither the AP writers nor the coaches have Alabama or LSU in their Top 10 this week.
Maybe they didn’t get the memo about how players in the SEC are getting a lot more NIL money than they could make playing in Big Ten. More money means better players – and coaches, and facilities. It’s professional sports in all but name.
The cold, hard numbers tell the tale. According to Sports Reference, the SEC (plus-11.23 using their Simple Rating System) is well ahead of the Big Ten (plus-8.69 SRS) among the conferences with just a handful of games left before bowl season.
Point being, these are two quality teams from college football’s top conference – and Jeff Sagarin thinks even more highly of both Alabama (No. 5 in his computer rankings) and LSU (No. 11) than the fine folks at BCF Toys.
Can the Tide Win in Death Valley?
Certainly – it happens almost all the time. Alabama was on a five-game winning streak (3-1-1 ATS) in Baton Rouge dating back to 2012; then the Tide rolled into Death Valley two years ago as 13.5-point favorites, and ended up losing 32-31 in overtime.
But there’s no debating how tough a venue Tiger Stadium is on opponents. When EA Sports released their College Football 25 game with Death Valley ranked “only” third overall among the sport’s top home-field advantages, the blowback was severe enough that EA revised their rankings the following month to put Tiger Stadium at No. 1.
No matter where they play, you still need a good team to beat Alabama. This is Year Three for the Tigers under Brian Kelly, the former two-time AP Coach of the Year (2012, 2018) at Notre Dame; under Kelly’s watch, LSU instantly recovered from the wreckage of the Ed Orgeron Era and won the Citrus Bowl following the 2022 campaign.
They’ve gradually gotten better from there, even after losing QB Jayden Daniels to the NFL and replacing him with Garrett Nussmeier (20 TDs, nine INTs).
The Pick
It won’t be easy beating ‘Bama, of course. Kalen DeBoer is the reigning Coach of the Year, and doing an admirable job in his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa.
The 2024 Tide are outperforming the last three years of the Nick Saban Era, but they’re not quite peak Saban – and now that Alabama is laying three points at Heritage Sports, LSU has all the value this Saturday in Death Valley. Bet accordingly.
College Football Pick: LSU +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
