Alabama vs. Duke March Madness Elite Eight Best Bet

While the SEC has the best conference in the country, we still feel that Duke out of the ACC has the best team in the country. We expect the Blue Devils to prevail by a bigger margin than this line suggests, so we are betting on Duke as moderate favorites over second seeded Alabama.

Nobody More Efficient Both Ends

Duke comes in at 34-3 after entering this tournament ranked #1 in the country, and they have proceeded to score 93, 89, and 100 points respectively in their three NCAA Tournament wins! Furthermore, the C-Note in the Sweet 16 came against a good Arizona defense that ranks 36th nationally in defensive efficiency.

Speaking of efficiencies, not only do the Blue Devils lead the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are also fifth in defensive efficiency. Historically, only two teams in the last 10 years have finished Top 5 in both efficiencies, and both of those teams won the National Championship (Villanova 2015-16, Virginia 2018-19).

The concern for Duke at the start of the tourney was the condition projected Player of the Year Cooper Flagg, but he has moved around just fine on an ankle he sprained in the ACC Tournament. He is coming off his best game during March Madness also, scoring 30 points while playing 36 minutes on Thursday. A healthy Flagg makes Duke the obvious favorites to cut down the nets next Monday.

Fast Pace Hurts?

Alabama is 28-8 and ranked sixth overall in Kenpom, and they lead the nation in scoring at a robust 91.4 points per game. That is actually about eight points higher than Duke’s average of 83.6 points, but keep in mind that the Bama average also reflects leading the country in Tempo Rating.

However, this is a case where we see that pace working against the Crimson Tide. Yes, they rank fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency themselves, but here they will be bringing literally the most efficient offense in the nation into that pace, a team that just scored 100 points in a slightly slower paced game in the Sweet 16.

And then, there is a world of difference between the defenses of these two teams. Duke is seventh in the country in points allowed at 62.5 per game, while Alabama is 356th at 81.2 points. Yes, that Tide average is again skewed by their pace, but they simply do not turn teams over while ranking 352nd in turnover percentage forced, and we do not think there is a team in the country that can beat the Blue Devils without the help of turnovers.

The Pick

So, in the end, we see Duke reaching the 90s in this game while facing no defensive pressure and relishing playing at Alabama’s pace. At the same time, we do not expect the Crimson Tide to reach their scoring average against a very efficient defense. This has us backing Duke in the Elite Eight nightcap Saturday night.

Predicted Score: Duke 91 – Alabama 80

NCAAB Pick: Duke -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Duke -6.5 (-108)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.