Alabama vs. Tennessee College Football Week 8 Free Picks: Can the Vols Upset the Crimson Tide?

What do you expect at this point? First Alabama beat Georgia as home dogs (+1 at the close), then LSU (+4 at home) beat Ole Miss last week, 29-26 in overtime. Of course, we have to put Tennessee in our Week 8 college football picks, now that they’ve hit +3 at top sportsbooks like Bookmaker for Saturday’s home game versus the Crimson Tide.

Are the No. 11-ranked Volunteers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) really in the same class as No. 7 ‘Bama (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS), though? And is Neyland Stadium as tough a venue as Bryant-Denny Stadium? Maybe not, but they’re close enough on both counts that we’re not going to worry too much about it. To the Pickmobile~!

What’s Wrong With Alabama?

That’s what everyone is wondering after the Tide followed up their rollercoaster win over Georgia with a historic 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt as 23-point road faves. Then they hosted South Carolina (+21) last week and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to prevail 27-25.

The story isn’t all that different for the Volunteers. They coughed up their Week 6 tilt at Arkansas (+14), then they needed overtime to beat Florida 23-17 as 14-point home faves. It’s the SEC version of the Spider-Man meme.

The thing is, under those masks, Alabama is Tobey Maguire and Tennessee is Andrew Garfield. BCF Toys has the Tide fifth overall (No. 5 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 56 special teams) on their latest F+ Ratings; the Vols check in at No. 9 (No. 31 offense, No. 5 defense, No. 2 special teams) heading into Saturday’s showdown. There is a difference.

How Tough Is Rocky Top?

It’s no walk in the park. Rankings from video games should be taken with an extra grain of salt, but EA Sports has the former Shields-Watkins Field (still the official name of the playing surface) at No. 13 for their College Football 25 release. Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa is No. 2. That’s reasonably congruent with many of the proprietary stats-based rankings we’re seeing here at the ranch.

The Crimson Tide know this all too well. The last time they visited Knoxville two years ago, they lost 52-49 as 9.5-point road faves – a dramatically different result from years past, when ‘Bama would push Tennessee around like the proverbial red-headed stepchild. That’s how important Josh Heupel has been to this program since he became head coach in 2021.

As for the Tide, they might not be quite as imposing away from Bryant-Denny Stadium – especially now that Nick Saban has retired. Kalen DeBoer is about as good a head coach as you’ll find today, but his three NAIA titles (at Sioux Falls) don’t have quite the same cachet as Saban’s seven National Championships, the last six of those with Alabama.

They say home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be, but according to Jeff Sagarin, the average FBS team is enjoying a 2.72-point edge at home this year. Sagarin also has Alabama rated 2.97 points better than Tennessee; if accurate, that should make Saturday’s game close to a pick’em even before we take Rocky Top into account.

The Pick

This pick doesn’t inspire quite the same confidence as when we picked Alabama over Georgia and LSU over Ole Miss. The Vols have played easily the softest schedule in the SEC, fattening themselves on non-conference cupcakes Chattanooga (+38.5 away) and Kent State (+49.5 away) before getting down to serious business. But again, we don’t want to overthink this. Pay the extra –117 vigorish to get Tennessee plus the full three points at home, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Tennessee +3 (-117) at Bookmaker

Tennessee +3 (-117)

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