Top NCAAB Pick: Connecticut -11.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have now reached the Final Four of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, which includes two 1-seeds and a 4-seed. However, it would not be March Madness without at least one Cinderella, and that glass slipper belongs to 11th-seeded North Carolina State.
We have not one, not two but three picks for the second game Saturday between top-seeded Connecticut and fourth-seeded Alabama. All three of these picks show betting value based on our proprietary model, which has produced a winning record this season in the BMR NCAAB Betting Forum.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Connecticut Huskies
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 08:49 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Those of you that have followed us know that we foolishly faded Connecticut in the first two rounds of this NCAA Tournament while seeing betting value on the other sides. We saw the light however and cashed easily with the Huskies in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight and we are backing them again here against Alabama.
Déjà Vu?
This season feels very similar to last season. Connecticut peaked at the perfect time then, cruising to the championship while winning every tournament game by a minimum of 13 points and reaching the top spot on Kenpom during the Big Dance. Just about the only difference between this year and last year is that this time, the Huskies were already #1 on Kenpom before the Tournament.
And to say UConn has justified that #1 ranking would be a severe understatement. Yes, beating a Stetson team ranked 220th on Kenpom by 39 points in the first round does not mean much. But since then, Connecticut beat 40th-ranked Northwestern by 17 points, 22nd-ranked San Diego State by 30, and, most impressively, 10th-ranked Illinois by 25!
The Huskies had a 30-0 run spanning the late first half and early second half to put Illinois away, and they now face an Alabama team ranked two spots lower in 12th.
And while 30-0 may be extreme, great runs can be expected from a team that leads the country in offensive efficiency and ranks fourth in defensive efficiency. Other than ranking 244th in turnover percentage forced defensively, UConn has no other weakness.
Offensively, they are seventh in eFG%, fourth in 2-point shooting and an above-average 69th in 3-point shooting, Defensively, they are third in eFG% allowed, second in 2-point defense and 28th in 3-point defense.
Don’t Expect Usual Production
Alabama has had a tougher time getting here since a 109-96 win over Charleston in the first round. They beat Grand Canyon by a deceiving score of 72-61 in the second round in a game they trailed with six minutes left. Then, they rallied from behind again in their last two close wins over North Carolina and Clemson.
They now take a humongous jump in class against the best team in the country, and they cannot expect to rally this time if they fall behind again. Yes, the Crimson Tide rank third in offensive efficiency, but they have not faced a defense as great as Connecticut all year. And the Huskies can probably do whatever they want against a Tide defense ranked 104th in efficiency and 113th in eFG%.
So, what we see here is Connecticut jumping out to another early lead, and Alabama not getting their usual scoring production facing an elite defense. Thus, look for the Huskies’ string of easy double-digit wins to continue.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 86 – Alabama 69
NCAAB Pick: Connecticut -11.5 (-115) at Bovada
Another Fast Start?
Taking note of what we said above about Connecticut jumping out to an early lead, that is exactly what the performances of these teams in the tournament suggest.
Connecticut has had the lead at halftime in every game so far, including leads of 33 and 22 points respectively the first two games. Granted the leads were “only” 9 and 5 against San Diego State and Illinois, but they were leads nonetheless.
Conversely, Alabama trailed at the half against North Carolina and trailed Clemson by 13 points with under eight minutes left in the first half before rallying for a 35-32 halftime lead.
We would not expect such a rally if Connecticut builds a lead, which is exactly what we expect, so bet the Huskies for the first half.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 44 – Alabama 32 (Halftime)
NCAAB Pick: Connecticut -6.5 (1st Half) (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
One Team Scoring
Now, we get that these are two of the top three offenses in the country in efficiency, but that is baked into this posted total in the 160s. The difference though is Connecticut also has an elite defense while Alabama’s is sub-par. Thus, as mentioned, we do not expect the Crimson Tide to carry their usual weight offensively.
Interestingly, despite facing some big-name schools in this tournament, the team Alabama has faced ranking highest in eFG% allowed is Grand Canyon in 9th. Well, checking the tournament scores, the fewest points the Crimson Tide scored was 72 against those Antelopes.
We do not see Alabama exceeding that point total against the best defense they have faced all season. Thus, we are betting on the Under with only one team expected to do the heavy lifting scoring-wise.
NCAAB Pick: Under 161.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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