MLB Pick: Over 7 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It’s all-pitch and no-hit for the Seattle Mariners, but the MLB odds at top sportsbooks have over-corrected for Tuesday’s tilt with the L.A. Angels.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, July 23, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
Living in the Pacific Northwest means you’re not allowed to complain about anything – except the Seattle Mariners. Baseball has been very, very cruel to us since the get-go. For every Ichiro, there have been 10 Jose Vidros and 1,000 Chone Figginses.
Seattle’s Meltdown
The latest and most fashionable Mariners anguish has them coughing up a 10-game lead over the American League West in the space of one month. They’re on a 9-17 slide as we go to press, dropping to 53-48 (minus-1.58 betting units) while the Houston Astros catch them atop the division standings.
As you may have heard from all the grumbling, the Mariners can’t hit for beans. They’ve got five aces in the starting rotation and relievers for days, but it’s all going to waste; Seattle ranks No. 28 in the majors with a .666 team OPS on the season, and just .661 since June 18.
So of course we’re putting the Over in our MLB picks for Tuesday’s game with the Los Angeles Angels (42-57, minus-3.35 units). All this Chicken Little-ing about the M’s has warped the baseball odds, giving us potential betting value on that 7-run total at Heritage Sports – where you’re already enjoying a bargain price with their 10-cent lines.
What’s Wrong With the Mariners?
They play in Seattle. There’s a lot to love about SoDo Mojo, but if you’re a professional baseball hitter, there’s something about the West Coast air that just destroys your game. T-Mobile Park ranks dead last on the MLB park factors at Baseball Savant with a three-year rolling average of 86 (indexed to 100), including an 83 for home runs. No wonder Ken Griffey Jr. skipped town after they moved out of the Kingdome.
I bring this up because the betting public has clearly gone overboard with the whole “all-pitch, can’t hit” narrative. The Under might be 53-42-6 for the Mariners on the season, but the Over is 14-11-2 during this losing streak, fuelled by artificially low totals. Or at least that’s the betting logic behind our baseball pick.
Who’s Starting for the Mariners?
The official MLB website says it’ll be Logan Gilbert, fresh off his appearance at Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game – well, his would-be appearance. Gilbert was named an All-Star, but he was scheduled to pitch the Sunday before the Mid-Summer Classic, so Seattle sent reliever Anthony Munoz instead.
Anyhoo, Gilbert has the Under at 14-6 this year, with the M’s earning 0.23 units in “profit” on a team record of 11-9. That most recent start was last Sunday: a 3-2 loss to the Angels in Anaheim (Under 9), where Gilbert pitched seven innings of two-hit ball before the bullpen melted down.
We’re betting this is unsustainable. Gilbert may have a tasty 2.79 ERA, but his 3.45 xFIP is more indicative of his true talent level – which is still high, don’t get me wrong. It’s unlikely Gilbert will continue holding batters to a mere .225 BABIP; for that matter, the Mariners themselves are last in the majors with a .259 BABIP at the plate, down from No. 24 overall (.287 BABIP) last year.
Seattle’s hitters should enjoy tearing apart what’s left of the Angels rotation. Jose Soriano (3.92 xFIP) has been running hot and cold this season, and that hasn’t changed since his call-up from the AA-Rocket City Trash Pandas on June 3; the second-year righty has three quality starts in his last five, and he earned a 2-1 win at home over the Mariners (Under 7.5) on July 13, but Soriano also took the loss in road games against the Oakland A’s and Chicago Cubs.
The Pick
Soriano’s last start before he got sent down to the Trash Pandas was May 31 in Seattle, where he gave up four runs in six innings as the Angels lost 5-4 (Over 7). Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-113) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
