MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
There is a full slate of Major League Baseball for Friday with all 30 MLB teams in action. And, as usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current betting odds available at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
The third pick that grabs my interest is the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Boston Red Sox.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Pirates vs. Phillies and Reds vs. White Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, continue reading for a detailed analysis.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, April 12, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
In a game where we expect negative regression for both starters, we are betting the Over when Tanner Houck and the Red Sox host Reid Detmers and the Angels at Fenway Park.
Not This Good
Houck has yet to allow a run in two starts this season covering 12 innings with 17 strikeouts against two walks. It is rather obvious that is unsustainable, especially relative to his currently ridiculous soft/hard contact ratio of 4% / 40%. That means that when Tanner has not been striking people out, he has escaped unscathed despite a lot of hard contact.
Granted, we do think Houck is better than his 5.01 ERA last season, as that was nearly a run higher than his 4.07 FIP. But we foresee Tanner as a 4.00 ERA type guy, and while his current strikeout rate of 12.75/9 is certain to drop, we also expect the walks to come from a guy with a career walk rate of 3.24/9.
Walks Raise Pitch Count
The southpaw Detmers is also off to a hot start at 2-0, allowing just two runs and five hits in 11 innings with 19 strikeouts and four walks. That translates to a K/BB ratio of 15.55/3.27 per 9 early on. Now, Ried does have legitimate strikeout potential with a ratio of 9.54 over his career, but 15.55 is still excessive.
His walk rate however is nothing new, in fact standing a bit lower than his 3.52 career mark. It is that high-ish rate that has prevented Detmers from having more success in the majors as he does have a live arm. Also, the abundance of strikeouts and walks raises the pitch count, usually preventing him to work deeply into games.
The Pick
That is a concern with a shaky Angels’ bullpen ranking in the bottom third of the league with a 4.66 xFIP. So, with neither pitcher as good as his surface stats so far, go Over in Boston.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 6 – Angels 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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