Arizona vs. Kansas State College Football Week 3 Free Pick: Which Wildcats Will Cover?

It’s already happening. You saw what Texas did to Michigan in Week 2 – and for that matter, what Nebraska did to Colorado. This is the way college football betting will be from now on: the SEC way up here, the Big Ten somewhere in the middle, and the Big 12 way down there.

Sadly for us, Friday’s game between the Arizona Wildcats and the Kansas State Wildcats (each 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS) is between two Big 12 programs. But there still might be some betting value if we grab K-State as 7-point favorites on the NCAAF odds board at Heritage Sports before the public pushes the home side to –7.5 or beyond.

Will K-State Cover?

That’s what they do – at least in Manhattan. It might be Chris Klieman under the headset and not Bill Snyder, whose name now graces the front of the stadium they’re playing in, but Klieman has kept this money train rolling since his arrival from North Dakota State:

• 2018-19: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS at home
• 2019-20: 5-2 SU and ATS
• 2020-21: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
• 2021-22: 4-3 SU and ATS
• 2022-23: 5-2 SU and ATS
• 2023-24: 6-1 SU and ATS

Being a “basketball school” has kept Kansas State’s betting profile under wraps somewhat, but now that Texas and Oklahoma have defected to the SEC, these Wildcats might be the best team left in the Big 12. Granted, that’s not saying much, but of the five (!) clubs from this conference to crack the AP Top 25, No. 14 K-State is right there with No. 12 Utah and No. 13 Oklahoma State.

What About Arizona?

Those particular Wildcats are ranked No. 20 heading into Friday’s feline fracas. They’re one of four Pac-12 refugees the Big 12 has brought in – Colorado, Utah, and Arizona State being the others. But they can’t even begin to replace the four teams (Texas, OU, Texas A&M, and Missouri) who bolted to the SEC in recent years, not to mention Nebraska.

Arizona still has a certain cachet after all those big bowl wins in the ‘90s under Dick Tomey, and they did have some success under Rich Rodriguez in the ‘10s. But ‘Zona was very much in the Pac-12 desert until they went 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS last year, then beat Oklahoma 38-24 at the Alamo Bowl as 2.5-point favorites.

That was Year Three under head coach Jedd Fisch. They say it takes three years to rebuild a program, and Fisch earned rave reviews for getting this team back on track – before bailing for the top gig at Washington, who just made their Big Ten debut. Now it’s Brent Brennan coaching Arizona, after a reasonably successful stint at San Jose State.

Was Brennan a Glass Floor Hire?

Brennan has indeed been put in a tough spot. The offensive line lost all four starters from last year, which is bad news for undersized QB Noah Fifita; Northern Arizona of the FCS (Big Sky) sacked Fifita twice in their 22-10 loss to the ‘Cats (+37 away), and while K-State’s pass rush isn’t the best part of their defense, hybrid LB Austin Moore is definitely licking his chops for Friday’s contest.

Given how soft Arizona’s schedule was last year, and how the SEC and Big Ten are bogarting college football’s most talented players, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised they failed to cover their non-conference games. Then again, neither did Kansas State. But the gap in performance between the two teams is obvious, with K-State at No. 15 and ‘Zona at No. 31 on the updated F+ Ratings at BCF Toys. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -7 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Kansas State -7 (-108)

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