This is one of three remaining weeks in horse racing to determine who will be the 20 horses that will saddle up for the Kentucky Derby. This Saturday we will have three certain qualifiers, as the winners of the Arkansas, Florida and UAE Derby will pick up 100 points which will get them in the field.
The intrigue will go beyond that as the Top 5 finishers all collect points, which will make for a fascinating day.
Here is a look at the horses that figure to be in the money for these top races.
Best Bet: To Win UAE Derby – #5 Forever Young
Arkansas Derby 2024
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – Post Time 06:47 PM ET at Oaklawn Park
- Race: 12
- Status: Grade 1
- Distance: Race 1 1/8-miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $1,500,000
Here’s the rundown for the Arkansas Derby, featuring each horse’s post position, along with the jockey, trainer and the morning-line odds you can find at partner books like BetOnline (check out our BetOnline Review).
Arkansas Derby 2024 Field
Morning-line odds as of March 28th, 2024.
Arkansas Derby Contenders
Oaklawn’s 12th race, the biggest at this track of the year, has three horses that have odds less than 3/1. This makes for a not-so-easy call as to who might emerge as the winner, yet it would seem the victor would come from this trio.
Muth is an 8/5 top choice on the morning line and he’s one of two horses in this race that has Grade 1 victory on his resume. Muth is highly regarded for his natural and consistent speed and is a definite win candidate.
The other horse with a Grade 1 win is Timberlake (9/5 odds), who won the Rebel Stakes in late February and like Muth did so over two turns, which matters here and in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Timberlake’s speed ratings are even more consistent than Muth's (three straight 93s) and his trainer Brad Cox is going after three consecutive Arkansas Derby triumphs. Win candidate.
Last but Not Least
The other top choice is Mystik Dan (5/2) who has the top speed rating in the field in his last race at the Southwest Stakes which was on this same race course. MD is less consistent than the other two but is wholly capable of reaching the winner’s circle.
Because the odds are so low, a possible betting strategy is using two horses to win and the others in a trifecta wager that would look like this: 2,7 with 2,7,9 and 7,2,9. Also, you could add another horse for second or third place if you choose.
In looking at long shots, three are possible to upset the apple cart or at least be solid vertical wagers. They are Time for Truth (20/1), Liberal Arts (15/1) and Informed Patriot (30/1). TfT has two victories and a place in three starts. LA has put together strong workouts and if jockey Tyler Gaffalione can get him in a lane on the backstretch, you never know. IP has shown he likes the Oaklawn dirt.
Arkansas Derby Best Bets
- Win – #2 Timberlake & #7 Muth
- Trifecta – #2 Timberlake, #7 Muth & #9 Mystik Dan
- Trifecta – #7 Muth, #2 Timberlake & #9 Mystik Dan
Florida Derby 2024
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – Post Time 06:42 PM ET at Gulfstream Park
- Race: 14
- Status: Grade 1
- Distance: Race 1 1/8-miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $1,000,000
Here's the rundown for the Florida Derby, featuring each horse's post position, along with the jockey, trainer and the morning line odds you can find at partner books like Bovada (check out our Bovada Review).
Florida Derby 2024 Field
Morning-line odds as of March 28th, 2024.
Florida Derby Contenders
Fierceness is the 8/5 fave at Gulfstream. One problem, he’s a play-at-your-own-risk type. He has the right trainer (Todd Pletcher) and rider (John Velazquez), but his moods and methods of training can have bettors reaching for the Maalox rather than thinking about mint juleps at Churchill Downs. No question he’s either a win candidate or barely makes a Superfecta ticket.
The guess here is horse bettors will seek more value and reliability from either Conquest Warrior (3/1) or Hades (7/2). CW does not have the most impressive speed numbers but is the only one in the field that has won at nine furlongs (the length of this race) and this was at Gulfstream. Hades is three for three in hitting the win column and has shown versatility, running off the pace or near the front to hit the line first.
Hades in an exacta box with either other top pick appears logical.
Different Factor
Frankie’s Empire (12/1) could be a factor having similar speed ratings to Conquest Warrior and he was a quality third at the Fountain of Youth a month ago and was unfazed by the added distance. Le Dom Bro (15-1) did FE one better in coming in second in the same race. LDB has good stalking speed and if Fierceness or one of the other favorites doesn’t have it, he could surprise. Both could be a nice place or show wagers.
Florida Derby Best Bets
- Exacta Box – #2 Hades & #10 Fierceness
- Exacta Box – #2 Hades & #9 Conquest Warrior
UAE Derby 2024
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – Post Time 09:50 AM ET at Meydan Racecourse
- Race: 4
- Status: Grade 2
- Distance: Race 1 3/16-miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $1,000,000
Here's the rundown for the UAE Derby, featuring each horse's post position, along with the jockey, trainer and the morning line odds you can find at partner books like BetAnySports (check out our BetAnySports Review).
UAE Derby 2024 Field
Morning-line odds as of March 28th, 2024.
UAE Derby Contenders
With this race at the Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, horseplayers will have to get their bets in early or the night before at 9:50 AM ET starting time. Forever Young is a sharp 9/5 favorite and there is conjecture if he wins comfortably, he’ll be a Top 5 wagering choice in Louisville on May 4th. Hard not to like this one for the win and or across the board.
If not FY, Pandagate (15/2) has shown the speed and has a win to hunt down the favorite and is at a fair price. This horse to win and place seems like a good wager.
Beyond this, George Tesoro (8/1) and Mendelssohn Bay (9/1) have the feel of Show bets.
UAE Derby Best Bets
- Win – #5 Forever Young & #12 Pandagate
- Place – #12 Pandagate
- Show – #6 George Tesoro & #10 Mendelssohn Bay
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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