Arkansas vs. Texas Tech 2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets

How They Got Here

This matchup marks the 81st meeting between the two programs, with the all-time series deadlocked at 40 wins apiece. Arkansas punched its ticket to the Sweet 16 with a 75-66 victory over St. John’s on Saturday.

Billy Richmond III led the charge off the bench with 16 points and nine rebounds, while Karter Knox contributed 15 points and six boards. Johnell Davis added 13 points and four rebounds.

Texas Tech secured its spot with a 77-64 win over Drake. Darrion Williams put up a dominant performance with 28 points, six rebounds, and five assists, while JT Toppin posted a double-double with 25 points and 12 rebounds. Elijah Hawkins chipped in 16 points and seven assists.

The Razorbacks and Red Raiders have met just five times since 2000, with their last encounter coming in the 2021 NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32.

Texas Tech closed the regular season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll and has gone 5-2 in its last seven games, with losses to No. 2 Houston and No. 21 Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. The Red Raiders finished 10-5 in Quad 1 games, and sophomore forward JT Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year, has been the driving force.

Toppin averaged 17.9 points and 9.2 rebounds in the regular season, logging 13 games with 20 or more points and 14 double-doubles. Through two tournament games, he’s posting 18.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game while shooting an efficient 79.8% from the field.

Arkansas has four days to prepare for Texas Tech, a crucial window as junior forward Adou Thiero aims for a return. Thiero, who suffered a hyperextended left knee on February 22 in a 92-85 win over Missouri, practiced on Friday but was ruled out hours before tipoff against St. John’s.

With additional recovery time, he could be available for the Sweet 16 matchup in San Francisco.

The Razorbacks are making their fourth Sweet 16 appearance in the past five seasons, the lone exception being last year when they missed the tournament entirely. This also marks John Calipari’s 16th career Sweet 16 berth, spanning four different programs.

Key Matchups

This March Madness game will come down to whether Arkansas can disrupt Texas Tech’s interior dominance or if the Red Raiders can impose their physicality on both ends.

JT Toppin vs. Arkansas’ Frontcourt

Toppin has been a force all season, and he’s been even better in the tournament. His ability to score efficiently in the post and crash the boards makes him a constant threat.

Arkansas doesn’t have a dominant interior defender to match his physicality, so they’ll need to throw multiple bodies at him to prevent him from taking over. If the Razorbacks can limit his second-chance opportunities and force him into tough shots, they’ll have a chance to neutralize Texas Tech’s biggest weapon.

Arkansas’ Depth vs. Texas Tech’s Defensive Pressure

Arkansas showcased its balanced scoring attack against St. John’s, with Billy Richmond III, Karter Knox, and Johnell Davis all stepping up. If they can replicate that effort, they’ll force Texas Tech to extend its defense, potentially opening up driving lanes and perimeter looks.

The Red Raiders, however, have been one of the better defensive teams in the country, thriving on pressuring ball-handlers and forcing turnovers. If Arkansas can stay poised and limit giveaways, they’ll be able to dictate tempo and keep Texas Tech from settling into its half-court defense.

Adou Thiero’s Impact (If Available)

Thiero has been sidelined since late February, but with four days to prepare, he has a chance to make his return.

If he plays, he could provide a much-needed defensive boost and some interior presence against Toppin. However, if he’s limited or unavailable, Arkansas will have to rely on a smaller lineup, which could be problematic against a physical Texas Tech squad.

Turnover Battle

Texas Tech thrives on creating extra possessions with its defense, and Arkansas will need to be disciplined to avoid falling into that trap. If the Red Raiders generate easy transition buckets off turnovers, it could be a long night for Arkansas.

Conversely, if the Razorbacks control the pace and force Texas Tech into a half-court game, they’ll have the edge in perimeter scoring and ball movement.

The Pick

Expect this game to be a battle of styles. Texas Tech will look to slow things down and dominate inside, while Arkansas will want to push the pace and rely on its balanced scoring attack. If Toppin has another monster game, the Red Raiders will be in control. But if Arkansas’ depth and perimeter shooting hold up, they could pull off the upset.

NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 147.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 147.5 (-110)

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