March Madness Sweet 16: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech Best Bet
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LT Profits
- March 25, 2025
NCAAB Pick: Texas Tech -5.5 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Well, we have now reached the Sweet 16 Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which takes place Thursday and Friday, with four matchups each night. All four top seeds are still alive, as well as three of the 2-seeds, with St. John’s being the only second-seeded casualty so far. Meanwhile, 10th-seeded Arkansas is the lone double-seeded Cinderella still in the Big Dance.
We are now here with a best bet for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model, which has a side in the Arkansas vs. Texas Tech contest that we feel holds value at the current betting odds.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, March 27, 2025 – 10:09 PM EDT at Chase Center
We have a rare SEC underdog in the South Region on Thursday, but we feel that it is justified in this case. We are backing the favored 3-seeds in Texas Tech out of the Big 12 over the 10th-seeded Cinderellas from Arkansas.
5th in Offensive Efficiency
We thought Texas Tech was capable of making a deep run before this NCAA Tournament began, and we think that run continues here. While the Red Raiders may not get the same national recognition as other Big 12 schools, this is a team that is 27-8 and quietly ranked eighth overall in Kenpom, the second-highest-ranked team in the conference after top-seeded Houston.
The Raiders are fifth in the country in offensive efficiency while safely “green” in all Kenpom offensive components. They rank 29th in eFG% while being excellent with ball protection, ranking 24th in turnover percentage. They are tough to defend because they shoot well from all points of the floor, sitting 31st in 3-point shooting and 49th in 2-point shooting. Moreover, they are an above average 59th in offensive rebounding percentage.
And Texas Tech is not lacking on the defensive end either, as their 37th ranking in efficiency and 53rd standing in eFG% allowed has been more than good enough considering the quality of the offense.
Not Enough Second Chances
Arkansas is the biggest surprise in the Sweet 16, that is, if any SEC team can be considered a surprise. They are now 22-13 overall after posting a losing 8-10 conference mark, yet here they are after upsetting seventh-seeded Kansas and second-seeded St. John’s in the first two rounds.
However, the Razorbacks still have weaknesses in both ends of the court. Offensively, they do not shoot 3-pointers well, ranking 246th at 32.4%, and they do not generate many second chances, ranking 232nd in offensive rebounding percentage. Defensively, they do not apply too much pressure, ranking 151st in turnover percentage forced.
Any one of those three weaknesses would be a detriment while taking on one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but we feel the combination of the three of them should serve as a death blow in this spot.
As great as the SEC is, Arkansas is its weakest remaining entrant, while we think Texas Tech remains underrated on a national level. Bet on the Red Raiders to safely advance to the Elite Eight.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 81 – Arkansas 70
NCAAB Pick: Texas Tech -5.5 (-109) at Bookmaker
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
