Army vs. Notre Dame College Football Week 13 Free Picks

The Fighting Irish Are Just Too Good

This is the best team Army has put together in over 50 years. The No. 18 Black Knights have tasted some success here and there under head coach Jeff Monken, including a 4-1 bowl record, but their 2024 squad has taken it to another level at 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS heading into Saturday’s marquee matchup with Notre Dame.

So why aren’t we putting Army in our college football picks? Because the No. 6 Fighting Irish (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) are that damn good – and because they’ve already been bet down from 17-point favorites on the opening NCAAF lines to a more manageable -14 at Heritage Sports. Maybe you can get them at -13.5 if you wait long enough.

How Long Should I Wait?

Not too long. Notre Dame is arguably the most storied team in college football, although there are a lot of haters out there. How dare the Irish remain relevant in today’s landscape, making money hand over fist as an independent program while clogging up the AP rankings and winning all those bowl games. I mean, the nerve.

Notre Dame hasn’t done too well at the Big Six bowls, though – not since Lou Holtz was their coach. And they’re not doing too well at the ticket window, barely cracking the Top 40 of this year’s FBS public money charts while undefeated Army marches into the Top 20.

Having said that, more recent betting surveys have been kinder to the Irish, who are riding a six-game SU and ATS streak into Saturday’s contest as Year Three under Marcus Freeman bears fruit. But the early BMR consensus reports show 71% support for Army, which explains in part why they’re already down to +14 as we go to press. Maybe give it until Thursday to see if the spread hits 13.5 before jumping in ahead of the public money.

How Good Is Army?

Quite good indeed. At plus-10.25 on the Simple Rating System (as per Sports Reference), the Black Knights are performing at a level they haven’t seen since 1968, when they went 7-3 under Thomas Cahill. They may never reach their 1945 peak of plus-33.35 SRS under Red Blaik, but recruitment levels for Army are a bit lower these days. Let’s hope they can stay that way.

Don’t be fooled by that undefeated record, though. Army has also played it’s softest schedule in 30 years (minus-9.86 SOS) according to Sports Reference. This is their first season in the American after two decades as an independent; the AAC ranks seventh among the nine remaining FBS conferences at minus-3.12 SRS, wedged between the Sun Belt (minus-2.28) and the MAC (minus-4.41).

Meanwhile, the only game this year where the Irish (plus-19.75 SRS) were underdogs was their season-opening 23-13 triumph over Texas A&M (-3 at home). But they’re still more battle-tested than Army, playing a slate heavy with opponents from the ACC (plus-6.39 SRS, No. 3 overall) and posting a plus-2.85 for Strength Of Schedule.

Did we mention Notre Dame beat Navy 51-14 as 14-point faves at MetLife Stadium back in Week 9? Navy runs a bit more Wing-T these days under Brian Newberry, and Monken doesn’t lean on the flexbone as much as he used to, but both military academies are still triple-option offenses at heart. This Saturday, Army won’t have the element of surprise working for them like they do against their unprepared AAC opponents.

The Pick

Yankee Stadium might catch a stray shower or two this weekend if the long-range forecasts are correct, but the forecast at press time calls for partly cloudy skies by kick-off and temperatures in the mid-40s. It’s unsavory enough that we’re going to recommend dialing down the bet size for your Week 13 college football picks; bigger spreads are harder to cover when the weather gets bad, so keep an eye on the skies as well as the college football odds board, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

College Football Pick: Notre Dame -14 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Notre Dame -14 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.