Auburn vs. Georgia College Football Week 6 Free Pick: Are the Bulldogs Ready To Bounce Back?

I love it when a plan comes together. As expected, the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide went down to the wire this past Saturday – although they took one hell of a journey to get there, with Alabama coughing up a 28-0 lead before bouncing right back to win 41-34 as 2-point home dogs on the NCAAF odds board.

Now the Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) find themselves coated in chalk for their Week 6 matchup with the Auburn Tigers (2-3 SU and ATS). They’re laying 24 points at most online sportsbooks as we go to press, with Bovada and other locations offering -105 juice. That’s up from -23 when the college football betting lines had their gala opening.

It’s too many points. Unlike Georgia-Alabama, there’s no question which of these two teams is better on paper; however, taking the Bulldogs at three touchdowns and three 2-point conversions is quite a mouthful, especially when the total is a hardly immodest 53. Should we bite? Or should we hammer the Under instead?

Will Georgia Bounce Back?

Probably. There’s no shame in losing to ‘Bama, although there was ample reason for Georgia to rue their fate after briefly taking the lead 34-33, in what was being hailed as the greatest comeback in SEC history before the Tide came in.

Thanks to the new 12-team College Football Playoff, the Bulldogs can continue their title chase unabated. Those three interceptions by QB Carson Beck weren’t ideal, but that’s the Tide defense for you; despite the loss, Georgia checks in at No. 4 (No. 6 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 8 special teams) on the latest F+ Ratings at BCF Toys, well ahead of Auburn at No. 29 (No. 54 offense, No. 25 defense, No. 54 special teams) overall.

Is Auburn Any Good?

Not good enough to make the polls – or even get a single vote from the AP or the coaches. That does suggest Auburn is at least slightly under-rated, given their position on the F+ rating charts. Then again, BCF Toys also projects Georgia to win by around 36-12. Shocked, shocked I am that the projections and the college football odds are so congruent.

#NotAllProjections. Remember Jeff Sagarin? He’s not publishing at USA Today anymore, but Sagarin’s various metrics have Georgia winning Saturday’s contest by a range of about 18-22 points. Mind you, Sagarin also has these two teams combining for a total of around 38. That’s a tiny total.

Now that we’re heading into Week 6, these projections as a whole are starting to carry more weight – and while none of us is Nostradamus here, both BCF Toys and Sagarin have Saturday’s contest going Under by a fair margin.

Auburn’s offense is part of the reason. They’ve improved considerably since last year, thanks to the arrivals of new co-ordinator Tyrone Nix (formerly of Ole Miss) and wideouts Keandre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) and Cam Coleman (Central High School, Phenix City, AL). But it might take a while longer before this Tigers offense is truly SEC-worthy.

The Pick

No such concerns when it comes to the Bulldogs’ defense. In this day and age, betting on college football is all about the Benjamins; Georgia ranks fifth overall in pledges from athletic boosters at $716 million (as per 24/7 Sports), ahead of No. 9 Auburn at $580 million. The more donor funds that come in, the more NIL money there is in the pool, and the higher quality of players your team gets to sign. Bet accordingly.

NCAAF Pick: Under 53 (-110) at Bovada

Under 53 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.