NCAAF Pick: Maryland +7 (-104) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the Music City Bowl between Auburn and Maryland.
The line has moved in Auburn’s favor because the public perceives the developing opt-out situation to benefit the Tigers, but I disagree. For your best bets, I will recommend taking the points: betting Maryland is the best move for this game.
Auburn Tigers vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, December 30, 2023 – 02:00 ET at Nissan Stadium
Line Movement
Oddsmakers have opened Auburn as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has shifted strongly in Auburn’s favor.
Because bettors often celebrate when a line moves in their team’s favor, it should be emphasized that line movements lack predictive validity. For example, just recently, the line moved strongly in Marshall’s favor, and yet the Thundering Herd still lost by 18 to UTSA.
I will contend that the line movement in Auburn’s favor makes betting on Maryland all the easier.
Maryland’s Big Opt-Out
Auburn is favored as heavily as it is because Maryland’s starting quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, has opted out. Critical to bettors’ perception of this game, misunderstandings about Tagovailoa’s backup are prevalent.
It is commonly reported that Billy Edwards Jr. barely played this season, and while this is true, it ignores the extent to which he proved himself last season. For example, he went 5-of-9 for 62 yards and a touchdown against Michigan.
More extensively, he completed 18 of 28 passes, throwing for 166 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern. Overall, he completed 60 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll be motivated to prove himself (again) in order to win the starting job for next season.
Auburn’s Key Absences
One might say, “ok, I grant you that Edwards Jr. is better and more experienced than I realized, but he is not as good as Tagovailoa, so the line movement is still fair.”
I am not saying, though, that Edwards Jr. is as good as Tagovailoa. However, he will be just as effective as Tagovailoa would have been in a game in which all starters play. This is because the Tigers are missing key defenders that will make up for the disparity in quality between Edwards Jr. and Tagovailoa.
The Tigers will miss their top two cornerbacks, DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett. Both defenders have opted out.
Maryland’s Great Wide Receivers
Especially with its top two cornerbacks absent, Auburn will lack the personnel to defend Maryland’s leading wide receivers.
By a large margin, Jeshaun Jones and Tai Felton lead Terrapins pass-catchers: Jones has 747 receiving yards while Felton has 723. Both players show, among other things, great route-running ability with which they will punish the Tigers’ backup cornerbacks.
Also watch out for Kaden Prather, who is difficult to cover because of the burst with which he separates himself from opposing cornerbacks. He finished the regular season with 609 yards.
More Support for Edwards Jr.
This season, Auburn’s weakness has been its run defense. The Tigers rank 87th in allowing 4.6 YPC.
This is an opponent against which Maryland running back Roman Hemby can thrive. He’ll build off the 113-yard rushing output with which he concluded his regular season against Rutgers. On the season, he’s already averaging 4.9 YPC.
With a balanced offense against an Auburn defense set to struggle against the pass as well as against the run, Maryland will put up a lot of points.
Auburn’s Offense
Without liking its defense, it’s hard to like an Auburn team that often struggled to put up points. The Tigers reached 30 points against all of two FBS opponents, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, yet it will require more than 30 points to cover the spread against Maryland.
In other words, the Tigers will have to put out their best offense to score enough against Maryland. This means that they will have to run the ball well because they are reliant on running the ball – they own the nation’s eighth-highest run play percentage.
When Auburn doesn’t run well, then it’s likelier to lose. For example, in its embarrassing blowout loss to New Mexico State, its quarterback passed efficiently, but its ground game mustered 65 rushing yards on 2.5 YPC.
Maryland’s Run Defense
I like the Terps to limit Auburn’s scoring effectively because their run defense is strong. They rank 22nd nationally at limiting opposing YPC.
Unlike Auburn’s run defense, Maryland’s reliably hinders opposing starting running backs from performing efficiently. The Terps are well-proven here. For example, they held Michigan’s star running back Blake Corum to 3.4 YPC. This performance is especially impressive because Corum is a great running back and because Michigan boasts an excellent offensive line.
The Terps rely especially on a high-quality defensive line that possesses strength and size in the middle. It is hard to move Maryland’s defensive linemen, who make life easier for Terrapins linebackers by minimizing the spaces available to opposing ball-carriers.
Takeaway
Maryland will be comfortable on offense, displaying a two-dimensionality that will exploit Auburn’s key absences on defense.
Auburn will fail to keep pace because it wants to rely heavily on the run but will fail to overcome Maryland’s strong and well-tested run defense.
NCAAF Pick: Maryland +7 (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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