Auburn vs. Michigan State 2025 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Best Bet

Stop Talking About Coaching

Folks who want to bet on Michigan State cite Tom Izzo’s greatness.

This game reminds me of Michigan State in 2018. In that year, the Spartans leaned on their coaching advantage to upset Miami by 20 points. Bettors were subsequently supporting underdog Michigan State with its coaching advantage against Kansas. However, the Spartans couldn’t even cover the spread because Tom Izzo can only do so much.

My point here is that he cannot negate the athletic advantages that a superior opponent has. Auburn is too long and too athletic for Michigan State. Its guards are too good and it has one of the best inside scorers.

Michigan State will be stifled by Auburn’s length in the half-court and will be easily out-dueled by Auburn’s balanced group of scorers.

Length Bothers Michigan State

The Spartans are vulnerable to the length of opposing teams because they lack three-point shooting — they rank 318th in three-point efficiency.

Because they can’t shoot, they struggle to space the floor. A more compact and congested floor makes length a more salient weapon for the defenses that they face. The Tigers, ranking 24th in height, certainly have that length — to go along with its elite athleticism that helps explain why they’re the top overall seed.

Length, even in games against weaker opponents, has caused Michigan State to struggle and to lose games. One such opponent is USC, a team that did not even make the NCAA Tournament.

The Trojans rank 29th in height, so they are comparable to Auburn length-wise. They beat Michigan State by six, which is the amount that Auburn needs to win by to cover the spread.

Big Men

Length also bothers Michigan State. This is evident in its loss to an Indiana team that did not qualify for postseason play and that was in the midst of a five-game losing streak.

The Hoosiers lean heavily on two scoring bigs, Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau, both of whom excel at posting up. Both big men combined for 33 points, contributing to Indiana’s four-point upset win.

Auburn has an elite big man in Johni Broome, with his 18.5 points per game. Broome is very difficult to guard down low. Michigan starts two seven-footers and still couldn’t keep Broome from exceeding 20 points.

Michigan State does not have the personnel down low to handle Indiana, apparently, and it certainly can’t contain an elite scorer like Broome.

Auburn’s Guard Advantage

Auburn is a veteran team. While Tahaad Pettiford is a freshman, he clearly embraces the big stage. Similar to Denver Jones, among other teammates, Pettiford is peaking at the right time, having scored 23 points two games ago against Creighton and 20 in his last game against Michigan.

He is also one of four Tigers players to convert over 37 percent of his three-point attempts, and he contributes to Auburn’s high-level efficiency inside the arc.

Auburn’s shooting threat contributes to its ability to space the floor and helps it thrive inside, where guards and wings have thrived against Michigan State, as evident in its recent games against Oregon and Wisconsin.

Michigan State handles teams like Michigan that are deficient in its guard play and gives up around 70 points to teams like Oregon and Wisconsin that have more talent in the backcourt. Auburn regularly scores around 80 points because it has that guard talent to complement Broome.

The Tigers with their length also pose greater challenges defensively. Their guards, for example, did a significantly better job against Purdue’s than Michigan State’s did because of their distinct advantages in length and athleticism.

Takeaway

Auburn has too much scoring talent with its guards and Broome and too much length and defensive ability for Michigan State’s offense.

The Tigers’ defense will suffocate Michigan State; their offense will blow past the Spartans. Tom Izzo is a great coach, but he can’t do anything about Auburn’s physical and athletic advantages, which will result in a double-digit win for the Tigers.

NCAAB Pick: Auburn -5 (-104) at BetOnline

Auburn -5 (-104)

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