Baylor vs. Duke 2025 NCAA Tournament Second Round Best Bets

How They Got Here

Baylor brought the defensive intensity and edged out a tough Mississippi State squad, 75-72 on Friday. The Bears have struggled to get past the second round of March Madness since their 2021 national title run, falling at that stage in each of the last three tournaments.

Robert Wright III led the way with 19 points, three rebounds, and two assists, while Langston Love added 15 points and four boards. VJ Edgecombe chipped in with 14 points and five rebounds to help push the Bears through.

Duke, meanwhile, shook off any rust in a dominant 93-49 blowout over Mount St. Mary’s on Friday. Cooper Flagg, playing through a banged-up ankle, got into rhythm early, and now he’ll be even more crucial moving forward.

Flagg finished with 14 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, while Tyrese Proctor led all scorers with 19 points and five assists. Caleb Foster added 12 points off the bench in the easy win.

Baylor mixed things up against Mississippi State, and it paid off. The Bears didn’t shoot particularly well, but they forced a flurry of turnovers, dominated the offensive glass, and capitalized on second-chance opportunities.

That level of activity will be key against Duke. Clemson exposed the Blue Devils by controlling the boards and torching them with 63% shooting from the field. For Baylor, that means attacking the rim, valuing every possession, and turning takeaways into points because…

Duke doesn’t give up second-chance opportunities. The Blue Devils’ offense slows down without Flagg at full strength, but he’s expected to be all systems go here. As long as he draws defensive attention, the rest of the unit should thrive.

Baylor pulled down 15 offensive rebounds against Mississippi State—that won’t happen against Duke. Without those extra chances, the Bears’ offense may not have enough firepower to keep up.

Key Matchups

The Bears have struggled to get past the second round in recent years, and they’ll have to find a way to dictate the tempo against a Duke team that thrives in transition and limits second-chance opportunities.

This matchup will be determined by Baylor’s ability to generate turnovers and manufacture offense against a disciplined Duke squad that is finally hitting its stride.

Baylor’s Offensive Rebounding vs. Duke’s Interior Defense

Baylor dominated the offensive glass against Mississippi State, pulling down 15 offensive rebounds and turning those extra possessions into critical points. That formula worked against the Bulldogs, but Duke is an entirely different challenge.

The Blue Devils are exceptional at limiting second-chance opportunities, and if Baylor can’t extend possessions, their offensive efficiency will be tested. Without those putbacks, the Bears will need to convert at a much higher rate from the field.

Cooper Flagg vs. Baylor’s Defense

Flagg looked strong despite playing through an ankle issue in the first round, and his ability to create for himself and others makes Duke a different team when he’s on the floor. Baylor’s defensive approach against Mississippi State focused on forcing turnovers, but Flagg’s decision-making under pressure will make that much tougher.

If the Bears can’t disrupt him, Duke’s offense will flow seamlessly, and Baylor will struggle to keep up.

Baylor’s Transition Defense vs. Duke’s Scoring Run Potential

Baylor’s defense was the difference-maker in the first round, but the Bears allowed Mississippi State to hang around because of some shooting struggles. Duke, on the other hand, thrives on long scoring runs, and if the Bears hit a cold stretch, the Blue Devils have the firepower to blow the game open in a matter of minutes.

Baylor must slow the pace and force Duke into half-court sets to avoid getting run out of the gym.

Turnover Battle

Baylor’s ability to generate turnovers was a game-changer on Friday, and they will have to find a way to replicate that against Duke.

The Bears don’t have the consistent offensive firepower to trade baskets with the Blue Devils, so they’ll need to create extra possessions and capitalize on mistakes. However, Duke’s ball security and ability to handle pressure could neutralize that advantage.

The Pick

With Flagg looking sharp and Duke firing on all cylinders, Baylor will put up a fight but won’t have the consistency to keep pace. The Blue Devils will dictate the tempo and overwhelm the Bears with relentless offensive pressure.

Baylor will come out with defensive intensity and keep the game competitive early, using their energy on the boards and aggressive perimeter play to disrupt Duke’s rhythm. However, as the game progresses, the Blue Devils’ ability to control the tempo and execute in half-court sets will take over.

Without second-chance points to fall back on, Baylor’s offense will struggle to keep pace once Duke starts rolling in what should be a high-scoring game.

NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 143 (-110) at Bovada

Over 143 (-110)

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