Bengals vs. Chargers Sunday Night Football Pick: Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert?

Bengals Can’t Find the Right Formula

The Bengals have some players with huge individual statistics this year with Joe Burrow leading the league in passing yards, Ja’Marr Chase leading in receiving yards and Trey Hendrickson leading all defenders with 11.0 sacks.

However, the team is 4-6 because its situational play has been terrible in the fourth quarter and overtime, and the Bengals can’t seem to play complementary football with a full team effort:

• In a 16-10 loss to the Patriots, the defense did its part, but the offense had one of its worst games of the season.
• The defense was adequate in Kansas City, but Burrow coughed up a fumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, Chase had a costly penalty and the defense committed pass interference on a 4th-and-16 with the game on the line.
• The Bengals had a double-digit lead in both Baltimore games, but Burrow was intercepted late in the game the first time, Evan McPherson missed a game-winning field goal in overtime, the defense dropped an interception in Baltimore and Burrow couldn’t get a completion (or draw a flag) on the 2-point conversion with 38 seconds left.

Those were all losses, but even in some of the wins, the Bengals didn’t play well offensively, but the defense and special teams came up big to beat the Giants and Browns.

Elite Teams Raise Questions

That’s the other thing about the Bengals. All of their wins have come against teams who are in the 2-7 or 3-8 range of records right now. They are 0-5 against teams like the Ravens (7-3), Chiefs (9-0), Eagles (7-2) and Commanders (7-3).

It’s not like the Chargers have built their 6-3 record on the back of any impressive wins either, but their losses have all been to teams who are currently leading their division, such as the Steelers, Chiefs, and Cardinals. They were also close in each game, and Justin Herbert wasn’t fully healthy for the losses against the Steelers and Chiefs.

The Bengals just can’t seem to find the right formula for wins against the good teams. While Chase is dominating, Tee Higgins has been injured and the team hasn’t really built up another reliable receiver. Also, while Hendrickson has 11 sacks, the rest of the defense has 6 sacks combined.

The injury update on Higgins isn’t great for Sunday night, but there’s a chance he could play. However, he’ll have to contend with a tough defense that is allowing a league-low 13.1 points per game.

Justin Herbert Finally Enjoying a Full Team

While the Chargers dumped Herbert’s favorite receivers this offseason, they did him a solid by finally getting the defense to play at a high level.

The running game has also been boosted with right tackle Joe Alt and running back J.K. Dobbins. Herbert has rarely had the luxuries of a run game and defense, so he was used to trying to win shootouts for years, which sometimes led to more mistakes like interceptions by forcing throws.

However, Herbert has only been picked once all season, and while he is taking more sacks and having troubles at times with his young receivers, he’s still dealing and making rookie Ladd McConkey better. Even Quentin Johnston, who looked like a bust last year, has made big catches and already has 5 touchdowns this year.

Herbert’s Passing Potential

Herbert only had to throw 18 passes last week in an easy win over Tennessee, the fewest attempts he’s ever had in an NFL game that he started and finished. However, Herbert has to be enjoying the culture change brought on by Harbaugh. He no longer needs to be the savior, but if the Bengals come out hot offensively, we know he still has the talent to put up some points and yards.

Herbert threw for at least 279 yards in 3 straight games recently prior to the relaxed day he had against Tennessee. The Cincinnati defense is inconsistent at best, but stopping a talented passer like Herbert might be difficult for them.

Who Covers the Spread?

The spread suggests it could be a tight one, but truth be told, the Chargers (1-3) have a worse record in close games than the Bengals (2-4) this year. That’s because the Chargers have done a good job of staying ahead of their opponents, who don’t score much against them, and they haven’t played as many close games as usual.

This will be a step up in competition, but the Chargers have held all 9 opponents under 250 net passing yards and 21 points this season. They are the first team to do that in a single season since the 2005 Panthers. Only the Steelers (20) were able to score more than 17 points against the Chargers this year. The defense is No. 5 on 3rd down and No. 2 at stopping touchdowns in the red zone.

In addition to the great defense, the Chargers only have 4 giveaways on offense, so this team is not beating themselves this year. This is the Harbaugh effect. Given it’s his 1st game at home in prime time with the Chargers, expect the Chargers to shine in a very important game if they want to deal a serious blow to Cincinnati’s playoff hopes.

Right now, the Chargers have a clear plan with their team. The Bengals just have a few stars who make plays but not enough of them by the end of the game. Give me the Chargers to cover the small spread for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-110) at Bovada

Chargers -1.5 (-110)

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