Bengals vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football Pick: Dallas Looks To Shine in December

I guess we’ll never learn. We recommended the Dallas Cowboys for your Monday Night Football picks in Week 11, figuring they had betting value as a “buy-low” commodity as 7.5-point home dogs against the Houston Texans. Final score: Houston 34, Dallas 10.

And then the Cowboys won their next two games SU and ATS. See, the value was there the whole time – and it’s still there for Week 14, when Dallas (5-7 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) once again plays host for Monday night’s tilt with the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS), this time as 5.5-point faves on the NFL odds board at Heritage Sports.

Why Should I Bet On the Cowboys in December?

Aha, caught you in my little trap. Dallas has a reputation for late-season collapses, but here’s the scoop: the Cowboys are 22-8 SU and 18-10-2 ATS in their last 30 December games, all since Dak Prescott took over as quarterback in 2016. That includes 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS at home.

The problems for Dallas come in January, when they’re 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS overall during the same span. Obviously, they’re not the same team with Cooper Rush (minus-0.14 EPA per dropback, No. 42 overall at nfelo) under center, but the Cowboys are now 7-3 ATS lifetime with Rush filling in for Prescott (minus-0.01 EPA, No. 31). The betting value comes from people over-estimating the gap between the two, and under-estimating Dallas overall in December.

Here’s another thing about Dallas: it’s already too late, they collapsed in November this time. The Cowboys went 12-5 in each of the previous three seasons under head coach Mike McCarthy, before winning just one of their four playoff games – all in January, by the way. Now they’re fighting tooth-and-nail to keep their very slim postseason hopes alive.

Expectations are already low for Dallas, but it looks like the market is going even lower.

What About the Bengals?

Something happened to their defense. Everything’s humming on offense, where QB Joe Burrow (plus-0.20 EPA per dropback, No. 7) is playing at a Pro-Bowl level. But on the other side of the ball, Cincinnati is the fourth-worst team in the league at plus-0.08 EPA per play, mere percentage points better than Dallas.

Granted, that offense/defense split does make the Over very tasty for the Bengals at 9-3. And the Cowboys are in much the same boat at 8-4. We would have been more than happy to recommend the Over for this matchup when the total opened at 44.5 points, but it’s already up to 49.5 as we go to press, so that boat has sailed. Did we mention the Cowboys’ defense looks much improved since LB Micah Parsons (5.5 sacks in the last four games) came back from his high-ankle sprain? Now we have.

Meanwhile, the point spread is still in play with Dallas at +5.5, although that’s down from +6.5 at the open, with the consensus reports at BMR showing 69% support for the Cowboys. What’s the word I’m looking for… delightful. Lovely.

The Pick

We’d obviously rather have Dallas at +6.5, or especially +7.5 again like that Houston matchup, but we’re not losing too much value moving one point in the other direction.

Six isn’t one of the more commonly cited “magic numbers” in NFL betting, although it is the third most common margin of victory at 6.2% according to Wizard of Odds, even ahead of 10 (5.6%). Adjust your bets accordingly just to be sure, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Cowboys +5.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports

Cowboys +5.5 (–108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.