Bengals vs. Giants Sunday Night Football Picks: Must-Win Game for Cincinnati

Can the Bengals Get Stops Against the Worst Prime-Time Quarterback?

Quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones are having arguably the best season of their careers so far, but the defensive disparity between the teams is significant. That could give the Giants, who upset Seattle 29-20 last week, a fighting shot in this one to drop the Bengals to 1-5 and significantly damage their playoff hopes.

While Daniel Jones has no doubt picked up his play after a disastrous Week 1 loss against Minnesota, there’s still some lingering doubt that he’s cut out for this job for the long term. Even during his improved month, the Giants are not scoring many points. They reached 29 in Seattle thanks to a blocked field goal going back for a touchdown in the last minute.

But let’s not forget the last time we saw Jones at home in prime time against the Cowboys in Week 4, he couldn’t get the offense in the end zone in a 20-15 loss. That was even a game where he had Malik Nabers, his standout rookie wide receiver, and starting running back Devin Singletary.

Blame it on MetLife Stadium or what have you, but it just seems like the Giants never score many points in that building in prime time. In fact, Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks you’ll ever see in prime-time games as his record is just 1-14 at night. His only win was on Sunday Night Football against the Commanders in 2022 in a 20-12 game.

The good news is Nabers has a fair chance to return to action this week after missing Week 5 with a concussion. He can certainly do some damage to this Cincinnati secondary that is struggling after a respectable start to the season. The offenses of Washington and Baltimore have just absolutely destroyed the Bengals on defense.

But if the Bengals can get some sacks on Jones, that’s always a good way to stop him in his tracks as their running game is way too inconsistent without Saquon Barkley to trust this year.

If the Bengals can hold Patrick Mahomes under 160 yards in a game, they need to step up against Jones in prime time as most defenses have since 2019.

Can the Giants Sack Joe Burrow Multiple Times?

For years, the strategy against Joe Burrow has been to sack him multiple times as he is susceptible to holding the ball in an effort to get big plays, and the offensive line for the Bengals has rarely been great.

But in 2024, Burrow has yet to take more than 3 sacks in any game. However, the trend holds true that he’s taken multiple sacks in all 4 losses, and he was not sacked at all by Carolina in the Bengals’ lone win.

This is an interesting matchup as the Giants lead the NFL with 22 sacks despite ranking middle of the road in overall pass pressure. Dexter Lawrence has been dominant with 6.0 sacks already, and don’t forget the team acquired Brian Burns from Carolina. In fact, his absence might help explain why the Panthers couldn’t get after Burrow.

So, if you can sack Burrow, you’re going to have a fighting chance. The good news is the Giants are No. 9 in net yards per pass attempt and No. 30 in rushing yards per carry allowed. The Bengals are a pass-first offense, so let’s see if they can play right into New York’s hands by putting the game on Burrow and exposing him to the pass rush.

Prop Pick: Giants Team Total (O/U 21.5 Points)

The Bengals have allowed at least 24 points in 4 straight games, something they haven’t done since early in Burrow’s 2020 rookie season. But we’re going to bank on that streak to end as the defense steps up for coach Zac Taylor.

The Giants have only scored over 21.5 points on offense in one game this season, and that was the last one in Seattle, a defense that’s been badly injured and gave up 42 points in Detroit the week before. The Bengals have some injuries too, but this defense was not terrible in 3-of-5 games. It’s the Washington and Baltimore losses that are juicing the numbers, and the Giants are just not as lethal even if Nabers plays.

But we’re also banking on Jones’ usual prime-time futility. Not only is he 1-14 in prime time, but he’s led the team under 21.5 points in 13-of-15 games. We’ve become conditioned to watching the Giants struggle to score points in these games. With that in mind, we’re taking the team total under for New York.

NFL Pick: New York Giants Under 21.5 Points (-110) at Bovada

New York Giants Under 21.5 Points (-110)

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Bengals vs. Giants (+3.5): Who Covers the Spread?

This is a must-win game for the Bengals, who cannot afford to start 1-5. The offense has been great the last few weeks, and the defense should look better against a lesser opponent this time. This is also a matchup in a situation where the Bengals usually excel:

• Since 2021, the Bengals are 11-5-2 ATS in non-conference games, the 2nd-best record in the NFL in that time.
• Since 2021, the Bengals are 22-10 ATS (68.8%) on the road, the best record in the NFL.
• Since 2021, the Bengals are 9-5 ATS (64.3%) as a road favorite.

Nabers is very good, but Ja’Marr Chase is also playing at an unreal level right now. Burrow is up to No. 2 in QBR for the season, and he’s arguably had the 2 best performances in losses in his career against Washington and the Ravens. It’s time to get back on track and win a game on the road.

Would prefer the spread was -2.5, but the Bengals should be able to score enough to take care of the Giants this week for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110) at Bovada

Bengals -3.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.