Best Super Bowl LIX Player Props: Under for Mahomes and Kelce

Here we are again: Christmas in February. Super Bowl LIX is this Sunday in New Orleans, and if you’re the kind of bettor who likes to make sharp NFL picks, you’ve been waiting patiently for February 9 to roll around. Now it’s time to hammer those Super Bowl props for maximum value.

The theory is simple enough: Casual fans bet the Over too often for the NFL player props featuring their favorite superstars. Online sportsbooks respond by shifting their football odds, posting cheaper prices on the Under to balance out the action somewhat. The larger the betting public gets, the more they distort the marketplace – and said public doesn’t get any bigger than at the Big Game.

As for said superstars, this Sunday’s matchup between Kansas City and Philadelphia has two: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. They’re about as famous as it gets these days; we touched on their player props last week at the open, so let’s take a closer look at where things stand as we go to press. Spoiler alert: The sharps have already gotten there.

What’s Wrong With Patrick Mahomes?

I don’t know if “wrong” is the right word, but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played at an MVP level this year – more like league-average. Put him on the same field as the best pass defense in football (minus-0.08 EPA at nfelo), and sure enough, the sharps think that’s a tasty recipe for an Under bet. They’ve driven the Passing Yards total for Mahomes down from 252.5 at the open to 251.5 at press time.

Timing is everything when you bet on the NFL – and doubly so when you bet on the Super Bowl. You get two weeks between the open and kick-off to place your bets; as a general rule, the sharps get there early while the lines are still soft, while casual fans open up their wallets and/or purses closer to game time, especially after the work bell rings Friday at 5 p.m.

At least that’s the way things used to be. Do they even have work bells anymore? Or Fridays? Time is a flat circle; the old betting patterns might not be as strong as before, but we can still anticipate the totals for guys like Mahomes to dip early, then soar again the weekend of the Big Game. Place your bets accordingly.

What’s Wrong With Travis Kelce?

Same thing applies here with Travis Kelce as it does with Mahomes – except in this case, Kelce isn’t just overvalued in the marketplace because he’s famous. The 10-time Pro Bowl tight end is 35 years old and coming off his least productive regular season (51.4 receiving yards per game) since he joined the league in 2013.

Having said that, Kelce is also extra-famous because he’s dating Taylor Swift. The Venn diagram of NFL bettors and Swifties might not show much overlap between the two circles, but it’s there – and it helps make pretty much every anti-K.C. contrarian bet a value pick.

Or at least they should be again by Sunday. Kelce’s total for his Receiving Yards prop has slid all the way from 64.5 yards to 61.5; that’s still well above his season average, but at this new price, you’ll have to place a smaller bet on the Under if you’re trying to maximize your return.

The Pick

The Mahomes Passing Yards prop is only down one yard from the open, and it’s a much larger number to begin with than Kelce’s total, so we can still hammer that Under pretty hard at 251.5. But again, chances are you’ll get a better price closer to kick-off. It’s up to you how day-tradery you’re willing to make all this; the most important thing for Super Bowl Sunday is to have fun, so keep that in the forefront of your mind while you’re betting, and enjoy the show.

NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Patrick Mahomes Under 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.