Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game Pick: A Bold Play Against Big Names
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Jason Lake
- January 20, 2025
NFL Pick: Under 47.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It’s a lot easier to say “I told you so” when things go right. Everyone here at the ranch was actively cheering for snow to mess up Sunday’s Divisional Round game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills; sure enough, the turf at Highmark Stadium was more like a skating rink by the fourth quarter. See how simple it is to make NFL picks for a living?
Then Lamar Jackson and the Ravens laced up their Bauer Supremes and scored a late touchdown to make the score 27-25 for Buffalo. The total was 52 on the closing NFL odds, so if you hammered the Under like we did, at least those nasty conditions delivered a push when Mark Andrews dropped the ensuing 2-point conversion. We’ll just forget that the over/under was 51.5 when we made our pick.
Sadly, it doesn’t look like the weather will be a factor for this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. There isn’t any precipitation in the long-range forecast until February, just some cloud cover (24% according to AccuWeather) and temperatures around freezing at kick-off.
We don’t need no stinkin’ weather. The Under is still the right choice for your AFC title game picks; there’s a 48-point total on the NFL lines at Heritage Sports… oh snap, it just went down to 47.5 as I was writing this. The total opened at 48.5, so here we are once again at the top-rated sportsbooks, picking up the crumbs the sharps have left behind. It’s a living.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
What About Patrick Mahomes?
I can understand if you’re a bit hesitant to pound the Under in a game featuring the two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP. But what if I told you the Under is 11-7 for Kansas City this year, and 11-9 in playoff action since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, including 6-3 in their last nine postseason games?
Okay, granted, the Over cashed in last year when K.C. beat the Bills 27-24 (Over 46) in the Divisional Round. But the diminishment of Mahomes’s play shouldn’t be ignored. His tires are already losing tread at age 29, and the advanced stats suggest Mahomes has performed somewhere around league-average since his last league MVP award in 2022.
What About Josh Allen?
Now we’re getting a little nervous. Allen was this year’s MVP favorite before the Lamar Jackson bandwagon started filling up; now he’s the +200 second favorite at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) behind Jackson (–260) as we go to press.
You could make a case for either, but Allen led all regular starters this year at plus-0.33 EPA (Expected Points Added, as per nfelo) per dropback, ahead of Jackson at plus-0.31 (No. 2) and Mahomes at plus-0.16 (No. 12). Allen was also third in rushing EPA at plus-0.06, although Jackson (plus-0.01 EPA, No. 7) was a more active part of Baltimore’s ground game.
Our chosen bet size for Sunday should respect that the Over is 11-6-2 for the Bills this year, and 3-0 in the three playoff games between Mahomes and Allen. They could end up trading touchdowns this Sunday as they did in those first two meetings in 2021 and 2022, but now that Mahomes appears to have lost a step, it’ll probably be closer to 2024, where the two offenses fizzled as the game wore on.
The Pick
One more reason to keep those wagers modest: Kansas City and Buffalo both played somewhere around league-average on defense during the regular season.
Dropping down from 48 to 47.5 also costs us something like seven cents of betting value (in terms of equivalent vigorish) as per Wizard of Odds. Save those big bets for the Big Game, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Under 47.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
