Bills vs. Dolphins Thursday Night Football Picks: Is Josh Allen Vulnerable?

All Eyes on Josh Allen’s Hot Hand

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen had the hot hand in Week 1. His 90.1 QBR at ESPN leads all passers through Sunday’s action. He led the Bills to 34 points on just 9 drives, and all the damage was done in the final 3 quarters as the Cardinals had the ball for all but 2:00 of the 1st quarter on Sunday.

But Allen should see a much more talented defense this week than what the Cardinals could throw at him. However, Allen has had his way with the Dolphins in his career.

• Allen is 11-2 as a starter against Miami, including a 4-game winning streak.
• Allen has thrown 36 touchdowns against 9 interceptions against Miami.
• Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all 13 games against Miami, the longest streak in NFL history for a quarterback against the same opponent.

We’ll see what new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver can do against Allen, who looked comfortable at home throwing to his new group of receivers after the team let go of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

But Allen also injured his hand against Arizona on one of his physical touchdown runs, and while it is to his non-throwing hand, this is something worth monitoring as he only knows how to play the game his way, which often means getting physical.

The Miami defense did a good job of pitching a 2nd-half shutout against the Jaguars on Sunday. The defense did not allow Trevor Lawrence to get comfortable with his receivers, but they will need to do much better against the run as 128 yards is usually a recipe for losing. But the Jaguars were just 2-for-10 on 3rd down against this defense with a lot of veterans.

Allen may very well keep his streak alive of throwing multiple touchdowns against this team, but the Dolphins will like their chances to win if the Bills are held under 24 points.

Tyreek Hill’s Wild Day

Few NFL players create headlines like Tyreek Hill, who was allegedly voted by the players as the No. 1 player going into 2024, a 1st for a wide receiver.

But on Sunday, Hill had the wildest of mornings when social media posts captured him being arrested and roughed up a bit by Miami police officers after a “verbal altercation” resulting from a traffic stop for reckless driving. Hill was eventually released after a few minutes and returned to his team.

Hill played the full game on Sunday, but the Dolphins started poorly and were down 14-0. However, in the 3rd quarter, Hill caught an 80-yard touchdown, his longest in the NFL on a reception. Hill finished with a game-high 130 yards and helped Miami come back for the 20-17 win.

Hill’s big plays are huge for this offense because the running game was stuck in the mud against the Jaguars. Even with Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane healthy, the Dolphins finished with 81 yards on 3.2 yards per carry. Jeff Wilson actually led the team with 26 rushing yards.

Buffalo’s Defense Has Tua’s Number

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hit some big plays and finished with 338 yards. But this type of imbalance is unlikely to be productive against Buffalo, a defense that has played Tagovailoa well.

In Week 18 last year with the division title on the line at home, Tua only led Miami to 14 points, finished with 173 passing yards, and he threw a pair of interceptions, including a late one in the 21-14 loss that clinched the AFC East for Buffalo again.

In the regular season, the Bills have done an incredible job against Tyreek Hill even going back to his Kansas City days. In 7 regular-season meetings, they have held Hill to 9.6 yards per catch and just 5.9 yards per target. For his career, Hill averages 14.1 yards per catch and 9.7 yards per target.

But in a couple of playoff games with the Chiefs, Hill destroyed the Buffalo secondary with huge games. He’s always a threat to keep an eye on, but the Bills are going to have to find a way to keep him under 100 yards again without trying to get a bogus arrest of him.

But they are one of the best defenses at dealing with Hill.

Bills vs. Dolphins: O/U 50 Points

The total feels like the better pick than the spread in this matchup. Division games can be weird, but this one has largely been one-sided with Buffalo having the advantage.

However, the last time these teams played, it was a 21-14 game in Miami with the Bills needing a punt return touchdown to get going. Buffalo held the ball for 38:07 despite the offense only producing 14 points.

It was shades of 2022 when the Bills traveled to scorching hot Miami in September and held the ball for 40:40. But they botched the end of each half and lost 21-19.

We know Miami’s struggles under coach Mike McDaniel have been on the road against the good teams. But playing in Miami does not guarantee a huge number on the scoreboard for these Dolphins, who had real issues with their running game last week.

Miami’s Home Field Edge

In fact, McDaniels became the coach in 2022, and in that time the over is 5-10 (33.3%) in games where the Dolphins are a home favorite as they are here. That’s the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

Miami has held 15-of-18 home opponents in the McDaniel era to 21 points or fewer, including 8-of-9 since 2023.

Division games can be some of the hardest to predict. Last year, the Bills routed Miami 48-20 a week after the Dolphins dropped 70 points on Denver. But then the Week 18 rematch was a 21-14 game, so you never really know.

We’ll bank on the short week, the dramatic week for Hill, and a little banged up hand for Allen possibly leading to some more mistakes and keeping the score under 50 points for both teams. Give us the under for your best NFL pick for this game.

NFL Pick: Under 50 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 50 (-110)

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Bills vs. Dolphins (-1.5): Who Covers the Spread?

We know a lower-scoring, closer game should favor the Dolphins at home as the Bills are a team that loves to win big. Sunday’s 14-point comeback over Arizona was a rarity in the Allen era, and even in that game, the team never trailed in the 4th quarter.

Plus, division games are usually a little weird, right? While Buffalo has been a rough opponent for Miami, it’s not like the Dolphins have always done terrible in these games. Most were still within a score in the 4th quarter, and that includes the 2022 AFC wild card loss in the playoffs when the Dolphins were forced to start rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson because of injuries. The Dolphins only lost that game 34-31 in Buffalo as a 13.5-point underdog.

Since Miami drafted Tagovailoa in 2020, the Dolphins are 17-7-1 ATS in division games, the only team that covers more than two-thirds of the time. Buffalo has been a virtual coin flip at 13-12-1 ATS since 2020, the start of its reign, in the AFC East.

Bills’ Prime-Time Struggles

Since 2022 when McDaniel was hired, Miami is tied with San Francisco for the best spread record (10-3, 76.9%) in division games in the NFL. Buffalo is only 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in division games in that time, which is only better than 5 other teams.

We also know the Bills can be chaotic in prime time with turnovers like in their losses last season to the Jets on opening night and the Monday night loss to Denver that got offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey fired.

Before the Bills came back to beat Miami 21-14 in the Week 18 finale, the Bills failed to cover the spread in their previous 7 prime-time games. This is a small spread that will likely be akin to betting on the moneyline, but my gut pick is that the Dolphins present a tougher defense than what the Bills tore through against Arizona, and they also have a more talented offense to deal with.

Throw in the home-field short week, division familiarity/weirdness, and a possible hand issue on Allen’s mind all night, and let’s go for a different result for a change in this rivalry. Let’s go with the Dolphins to cover.

NFL Pick: Dolphins -1.5 (-113) at BetOnline

Dolphins -1.5 (-113)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.