Bills vs. Jets Monday Night Football Pick: Aaron Boils Over
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Jason Lake
- October 12, 2024
NFL Pick: Over 40 (–115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Who’s in charge of the New York Jets? Is it co-owner, chairman and CEO Woody Johnson calling the shots? Is it QB Aaron Rodgers? What about GM Joe Douglas – does he do more than fetch coffee and pick up their laundry?
We can tell you who isn’t in charge: Robert Saleh. The Jets (2-3 SU and ATS, Under 3-1-1) fired Saleh on Tuesday and made defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich their interim head coach. Saleh got the ax not long after voicing his concerns about Rodgers’s pre-snap cadence. Hmmmm.
The online sportsbooks have responded by downgrading New York from +1.5 to +2.5 for their Monday Night Football matchup with the visiting Buffalo Bills (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, Under 3-2). We don’t see much betting value with that point spread here at the ranch, but now that the total has dropped to 40 at Bovada, after opening as high as 44? We’ll buy that for a dollar.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Monday, October 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
What Are the Jets Doing?
Whatever they damn well please. Apparently, winning football games isn’t at the top of the priority list; however, it’s not like they didn’t spend big money on Rodgers, and let him re-shape the Jets offense in his Green Bay image, with Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, and Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb (since retired) joining Garrett Wilson as his wideouts.
Firing Saleh and keeping Hackett might make Rodgers happy, but it won’t improve New York’s offense. According to nfelo, the Jets rank No. 23 overall at minus-0.08 EPA (Expected Points above Average) per offensive play; the passing game has been league-average, and the running game far worse at minus-0.20 EPA per play (No. 28 overall).
So why am I recommending the Over when the Jets are struggling to score? It’s in part because the NFL totals have changed this much, with the total hitting up four of the Top 5 magic numbers according to Wizard of Odds: 44, 43, 41 and 40.
It’s also because Saleh was the guy who turned New York’s defense around after he was hired in 2021. Ulbrich deserves some credit, too, but Monday will be his first crack at being a head coach – anywhere. I expect more short-term pain on defense than on offense.
Should the Bills Fire Sean McDermott?
It’s a tough crowd out there. McDermott may have botched last week’s 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans (–1 at home, Under 48) with some brutal late-game clock management, but really, it was QB Josh Allen going 9-of-30 against a league-average pass rush that sealed Buffalo’s fate.
I wouldn’t be too worried about it if I were a Buffalo fan. On the season thus far, the Bills still have the second-best passing attack in the NFL at plus-0.31 EPA per play. They’re also getting league-average production from their running and their defense, which isn’t ideal, but it’s also not bad per se. You can’t be great at everything all the time.
Since it’s October, and bad weather is on everyone’s mind, here’s some good news for our NFL picks: Monday’s forecast calls for partly cloudy skies over East Rutherford and temperatures around 55 degrees, with about a 10% chance of rain and winds below 10 mph. Nothing much there to spoil our fun, thankfully.
The Pick
Some sportsbooks at press time have a total of 41 on the board with the Over vig at –105; others have it at 40.5 with –108 juice or higher. All the magic numbers I mentioned above are worth over seven cents to move a half-point away from, or onto in this case; “buy” that half-point at –115, smooth out some of your variance by turning a loss into a push should they score exactly 40 points, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Over 40 (–115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
