Blue Jays vs. Orioles MLB Best Bet: Tanking Toronto Adds Betting Value

A Disappointing Year

It’s been a season to forget for the Toronto Blue Jays. As I write this, the Blue Jays have just gotten their butts handed to them 11-5 by the Baltimore Orioles (-155 at home) in their series opener, leaving Toronto 14 games behind the first-place O’s in the American League East at 49-57 (minus-12.94 betting units).

With the 2024 season a write-off, the Jays have traded away just about every impending free agent of note on their roster, hoping to replenish their farm system and reload quickly for 2025. In doing so, Toronto has flipped their MLB betting market; they are now the plausible value pick for Tuesday’s rematch with the Orioles as +180 road dogs at BetOnline.

Who Did the Jays Trade?

Not Vladimir Guerrero Jr., nor Bo Bichette – at least not as we go to press. Those players are still under contract for next year, so if you’re an MLB team looking to add talent before Tuesday’s 6:00 p.m. Eastern deadline, you’ll have to pay Toronto a hefty premium for either of those two.

Postseason rentals are another animal. Here’s the list of players the Jays have shed thus far:

• DH Justin Turner (.720 OPS)
• C Danny Jansen (.671 OPS)
• RP Yimi Garcia (3.01 xFIP)
• RP Nate Pearson (3.70 xFIP)

There’s also every chance SP Yusei Kikuchi (3.39 xFIP) will have been unloaded by the time you read these words. The above foursome includes some of Toronto’s best performers this year, although that’s not saying much; losing Garcia and Pearson from what’s left of their injury-plagued bullpen will definitely have an impact on Tuesday’s contest, but Turner and Jansen are eminently replaceable.

Who’s Starting for the Jays?

Chris Bassitt (4.22 xFIP) is next up for Toronto, as he tries to overcome the roughest patch of his hard-luck season. The Blue Jays are only 8-13 (10-10-1 Totals) in Bassitt’s 21 starts for a deficit of 5.68 betting units, including 0-4 in games where he registered a No Decision. All four of those games were back in June; he’s 1-3 in July (Over 3-1), allowing 15 earned runs in 21.2 innings of work.

Cut the man some slack. Bassitt’s 3.78 ERA may be lower than his xFIP numbers, but the veteran northpaw has also been saddled by a .324 BABIP, easily his highest since he became a regular starter.

And don’t be scared too much by that 1.083 lifetime OPS current Baltimore hitters have racked up at Bassitt’s expense. That’s over a small sample size of 39 at-bats, although it does include a pair of Gunnar Henderson home runs.

Who’s Starting for the Orioles?

None other than Corbin Burnes (3.41 xFIP), the former National League Cy Young winner with the Milwaukee Brewers. Burnes has the Orioles at 14-7 in his 21 starts (Over 11-6-4) for 2.28 units in profit, including a 10-1 win over Toronto (+127 at home) back on June 4.

That wasn’t against Bassitt, though – it was a “bullpen” game for the Jays, who got two perfect innings from opener Trevor Richards (4.54 xFIP) before everything went sideways. Speaking of whom, Richards also threw two hitless innings Monday, so he’s probably unavailable to help support Bassitt on Tuesday.

As for Burnes, his 2.45 ERA is almost a full run lower than his otherwise strong xFIP, in part because Baltimore has stranded 82.8% of his runners – also a career-high since Burnes became a starter. The O’s will probably win this game, but regression is coming for both Bassitt and Burnes, so we’re putting Toronto in our MLB picks at these very tempting odds.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+180) at BetOnline

Blue Jays ML (+180)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.