MLB Pick: Over 7 (-122) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with every team in action. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate available on top sportsbooks.
These best bets and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a total in the Emerald City of Seattle Friday with the Blue Jays visiting the Mariners.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 05, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
Yes, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays and Luis Castillo of the Mariners have been good Major League pitchers in the past. However, both show enough red flags this year for us to back the Over at this low posted total.
Has Become More Hittable
We felt that Kevin Gausman was underrated over the last four years while posting sub-4.00 ERAs and xFIPs each of those seasons. However, although there have been no public reports of any physical injury, he has simply not looked the same this year. His velocity of 93.8 MPH is at his lowest point since 2019, which has led to a sharp rise in the ERA to 4.75 from 3.16 last season and a nearly 2% decline in his swinging-strike rate to 11.0% from 12.9%.
Most disturbingly though, he has become more hittable as of late. Not only was he awful last time out allowing seven earned runs in 4.1 innings, but his swinging-strike rate was below 10% for the second straight start at 9.3%. In fact, the swinging-strike rate was above 10.3% just once in his last seven starts with four of those outings being below 10%. All this from a guy with a 12.3% swinging-strike rate over his entire career in the American League.
ERA and xFIP Up
Castillo has done Gausman one better by posting sub-4.00 ERAs and xFIPs each of the last five years. And to be fair, he is on pace to do it for a sixth straight season. However, those figures are closer to the 4.00 mark than any time during this stretch, with the ERA currently 3.87 and the xFIP 3.85.
Sure, that still projects to a fine 3.85ish ERA long term, but given this low posted total and Gausman’s recent struggles, Luis still figures to allow enough runs to clear this Over. A few causes for concern here are his strikeout rate dipping to 8.86/9 this year at age 31 after being in the double-digits the last two years and a relatively high hard-contact rate of 31.2%.
The Pick
So, Castillo is at least showing some slippage from his peak form of recent years, while Gausman is being hit more than ever with reduced velocity. That sounds like a good recipe for an Over in Seattle Friday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Mariners 4
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-122) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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