Blue Jays vs. Rangers MLB Best Bet: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas
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LT Profits
- September 18, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports
We have a loaded 15-game card of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. And as usual, we are here with three best bets for today’s slate that we feel currently hold nice value at the present MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in the Lone Star State Wednesday with the Blue Jays visiting the Rangers.
Don’t forget to check out our other picks of the day:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Phillies vs. Brewers and Tigers vs. Royals.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, September 18, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
We see a matchup of two underrated pitchers on Wednesday when Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays visit Cody Bradford and the Rangers. This has us backing the Under in Arlington.
Shining as Starter
Francis pitched out of the bullpen his first two seasons in the Major Leagues, and he began this season in that same role. However, he entered the starting rotation on August 7th and his fine pitching has kept him there ever since. He is 8-4 over the entire season with a 3.50 ERA and a good K/BB ratio of 7.96/1.94 per nine innings.
However, Bowden has really stepped things up in his seven starts since entering the Toronto rotation full-time, posting a minuscule 1.50 ERA over 48 innings. He has allowed three runs or less in all seven starts while also raising his strikeout rate to 8.63/9 and lowering his walk rate to a microscopic 0.94/9. We do not see him slowing down against a Texas lineup that ranks 21st in wRC+ against right-handers at 94 and that recently lost Corey Seager for the season.
Even Better at Home
The southpaw Bradford has been quietly solid this year for the disappointing defending World Champion Rangers, going 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA that is validated by an identical 3.97 xFIP. He too has a very good K/BB ratio of 8.22/1.37 per nine innings. Yes, he was roughed up for eight runs in only 3.2 innings at Arizona in his last outing, but that is the only time in 11 starts this year that he has allowed more than three earned runs, in fact, allowed two runs or less eight times.
But Bradford has been at his absolute best pitching here at Globe Life Field, where he owns a 2.57 ERA over eight starts. He has yielded just a .525 OPS at home compared to a .910 OPS on the road. We see him having continued success facing a Toronto lineup ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ at only 88.
So besides these being two underrated pitchers in our eyes, both teams are also at their weaker batting splits. That is enough for us to bet the Under in Texas.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Rangers 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
