Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Rested Cole Means Under in the Bronx
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LT Profits
- August 4, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are 17-10 in our last 27 plays entering Sunday’s typically full card of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from the top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Bronx in the Blue Jays vs. Yankees matchup Sunday.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, August 04, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
No Longer Fatigued?
We expect Gerrit Cole of the Yankees to regain his good form pitching on 10 days of rest, which we feel should key an Under while hosting Yariel Rodriguez and the Blue Jays.
Gerrit Cole did not make his season debut until June 19th due to an elbow injury, and his stats are not pretty in his seven starts, as he owns a 5.40 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. He was roughed up by the crosstown Mets for the second time this year in his last start allowing six runs in 5.2 innings, and he then missed his next scheduled start with “general fatigue”.
Well, the extended rest has apparently suited him well as he had good “pop” in his bullpen session Friday and deemed himself ready to go. Besides, the two bad starts against the Mets are skewing his numbers over a limited sampling. He only had one other non-quality start against the Red Sox where he allowed four runs, as in his other four outings he allowed one run three times and two runs once.
Also, he still rates a 115 on Stuff+ with his 95.4 MPH fastball and still has a nice strikeout rate of 9.77/9, so we foresee a prime performance with the extra rest.
Better than the ERA
Yariel Rodriguez comes in at just 1-4 with a 4,20 ERA, but the truth is he has pitched much better than that and has suffered from a lack of run support. In fact, he has almost always given the Jays a chance to win despite earning just the lone victory. That is because he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts, and he allowed a reasonable four earned runs in the other one.
Like Cole, the rookie Rodriguez also has a nice strikeout rate at 9.52/9 over his 11 starts. He has also minimized damage with a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 16.0% / 24.5%, so he can be tough on a normally lethal Yankee lineup that has never faced him.
The Pick
Sadly, Rodriguez’s lack of run support figures to continue if we are correct about Cole regaining his form with the extended rest. This has us betting the Under in Yankee Stadium on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Yankees 5 – Blue Jays 2
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
