MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Atlanta Braves are squaring off against the New York Mets, with both teams vying for dominance in the NL East division.
Let’s analyze the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks to help us determine our MLB best bet for Thursday.
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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 25, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field
While the National League might lack a lot of drama when it comes to division races, the wild card battle is more than making up for that with a half-dozen teams currently packed within 3-games of each other for the three openings.
The top two of those teams are the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, and their long 4-game series in Flushing this weekend should give us a taste of playoff baseball that is now just two months away.
Atlanta sends Chris Sale (13-3, 2.70) to the bump in Thursday’s series opener opposite New York’s Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58), and BetOnline has this one tagged with the Braves favored on a -120 moneyline and a 7½-run total juiced to the low side.
Braves Mired in 4-Game Skid
Yeah, sure, there’s a lot of time left on the slate, but if Atlanta or New York expects to make a serious run at Philadelphia for the NL East crown, it has to begin in this series by taking 3 of 4, if not pulling off a big broom job.
It has been a soggy week in Atlanta where Tuesday’s matchup with the Reds was rained out, and then the second game of the make-up doubleheader on Wednesday was also waved off. The Braves lost the first game before rain came, extending their losing streak to 4.
Not playing Wednesday’s second game against the Reds means two things for Atlanta skipper Brian Snitker. First, he gives Sale some extra rest and gets to use him to open this series, plus the bullpen was saved some wear and tear.
Everyone but Grant Hughes, who worked long relief for Atlanta in Game 1 on Wednesday, should be available for Snitker to call on Thursday night.
The Mets were on the road earlier this week, but it was only a couple of short subway rides across town to the Bronx against the rival Yankees. And what an enjoyable away series that was as the Metropolitans swept both games from the Evil Empire.
Both games found the Mets as the underdogs on the MLB odds, and they revved up the offense against Gerrit Cole on Wednesday in a 12-3 spanking. New York has won 4 of 6 since the break.
Mets Have Won 7 of Severino’s Last 9 Starts
Sale is the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young at around +150 on current MLB futures, and he should get some interest from voters for NL MVP as well since the Braves would be in really bad shape without the offseason acquisitions of both Sale and Reynaldo Lopez.
Backers have returned to collect in Sale’s last 3 starts, and 5 of the last 6. He’s facing the Mets for the first time since September 2021 when he beat them at Fenway while in a BoSox jersey, and New York’s middle infield tandem of Iglesias & Lindor are a combined 24-64 (.375) against Sale with a homer each.
Severino’s first start back from the All-Star break went splendidly. He posted six scoreless innings in Miami last Saturday, allowing just 2 hits while striking out 7. The oft-injured right-hander has already pitched his most innings since 2018 and matched his best season win total since the same year.
The Mets’ lone win over the Braves in New York back in mid-May came with Severino working into the sixth. He allowed just 2 runs to keep the Mets in it for a 4-3 win in a game that closed as a pick at some sportsbooks.
Rivalry Notes & Betting Trends
It has been more than two months since these old foes last got together, and the road teams have won both sets played this season. The Mets took 2 of 3 in Atlanta back in early April, and the Braves countered about a month later by taking 2 of 3 in Queens over Mother’s Day weekend.
All 3 games of the April meeting at Truist Park went past the totals, while all 3 at Citi Field in May came up short of the numbers by taking both sets against the Mets.
The Braves also took both series in New York a year ago, and have now come out on top in 7 of the last 10 played at Citi Field. ‘Under’ bettors have also gone 7-3 during the same span.
Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Mostly cloudy is the forecast for Queens all day Thursday, with a very muggy 81° predicted for the first pitch. A 10-12 mph westerly breeze (left to right) is also expected. Given the current form of the two teams, a play on the underdog Mets would seem to be a no-brainer. Given that I’m often accused of having no brain, that’s exactly the direction I’m going with my free MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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