Braves vs. Nationals Best Bet Wednesday: Vote for Washington To Upset in DC
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LT Profits
- September 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+151) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Wednesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays that, based on the current MLB odds, we feel have the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in our nation’s capital in the Braves vs. Nationals matchup Wednesday.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 – 06:45 PM ET at Nationals Park
We are looking for an upset Wednesday when Max Fried and the suddenly offensively inept Braves pay a visit to Jake Irvin and the Nationals in Washington.
Some Slippage This Year
Granted, Fried probably deserves a better fate than his 9-8 record, as he owns a 3.35 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.45 xFIP. But like the entire Atlanta staff, Fried has not received as much run support from a declining offense as last year, when the Braves had one of the best offenses in baseball.
With that said, Max has also had some slippage of his own compared to past seasons despite the ERA and xFIP. His strikeout rate of 8.41/9 is down nearly a full batter from 9.27/9 last year, a dip supported a swinging strike rate of 10.3% that is at its lowest point since his rookie 2017 season. Also, his walk rate has climbed over one batter, to 3.11/9 from 2.09.
Furthermore, the southpaw is facing a Washington lineup that has hit left-handers well so far in September, ranking third in the majors so far this month against them with a wRC+ of 136.
Facing Struggling Offense
The young Irvin has made some progress in his second Major League season, although he still stands at only 9-12 with a 4.28 ERA. However, his xFIP is a bit better at 3.99 and has improved some underlying metrics from his rookie season.
He has a good groundball rate at 43.3% and he has raised his soft contact rate by more than 4% since last year, to 16.7% from 12.5%. He has also added a slider to his arsenal this season, and that pitch is already garnering a Stuff+ rating of 110.
And then there is the story of the Braves’ offense, which has gone from leading the league in wRC+ against right-handers last season at 123 to rank 22nd this year at a below-average 94. Moreover, that figure sinks to a putrid 76 so far in September.
The Pick
With the batting splits this month favoring the Nationals in a big way, along with Fried’s declining K/BB ratio and Irvin’s added slider, we are betting on Washington as big home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Nationals 4 – Braves 3
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+151) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
