Braves vs. Padres MLB Postseason Best Bet: Scoring Scarce in San Diego Game 2
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LT Profits
- October 2, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue Wednesday with Game 2 of each of the four respective Wild Card Series. After going 2-1 Tuesday including a +141 winner, we return with three best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel currently hold nice value on the MLB odds board.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total for Game 2 from San Diego on Wednesday with the Braves visiting the Padres.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Game 2
- Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Game 2
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered this game as well as the Mets vs. Brewers bout.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, October 02, 2024 – 08:38 PM ET at Petco Park
The Padres shut out the Braves 4-0 in the series opener last night, and we are looking for another well pitched game resulting in an Under with Joe Musgrove hosting Max Fried.
Peak Form Since Returning
Musgrove finished at 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 3.74 xFIP, but that does not tell the full story. That is because he spent three months on the injured list and had been in peak form since his return on August 12th.
Joe Musgrove has made nine starts since coming back and has gone 3-1 with a low 2.11 ERA and 3.18 xFIP. He has an outstanding K/BB ratio over those starts of 10.19/1.43 per nine innings while allowing two runs or less seven times and three runs on one other occasion. He has an amazing overall Stuff+ of 134 over those nine starts only, so he is clearly over his injury and in fact, has benefitted from the time off.
And the Braves getting shut out last night is nothing new as Atlanta has slipped to 18th in the majors in wRC+ this season after leading the league last year.
Still Solid
Max Fried may have slipped a bit this season at the age of 30 from his peak years, but he remained very solid despite a modest 11-10 record. The aforementioned declining Atlanta offense did not give him much support as he finished 15th in the majors with a 3.25 ERA and he was 11th in xFIP at 3.33.
Max has always been adept at “throwing grounders”, and that continued this year as he ranked second in groundball rate at 58.8%. That helped offset a decline in his strikeout rate to 8.57/9 from 9.27/9 last year, as did his good soft/hard contact ratio of 18.4% / 28.4%.
The southpaw is facing a San Diego offense that was below average in wRC+ against left-handers this year at 96, a far cry from their 116 against righties.
The Pick
With the Padres at their worse offensive split, the Braves struggling offensively all year, and two very good pitchers, bet the Under in Game 2 from San Diego.
Predicted Score: Padres 3 – Braves 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
