Brewers vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Surprising Scoring in Hot-lanta
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LT Profits
- August 7, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-124) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are currently on a 19-11 run in our last 30 plays entering Wednesday’s big slate of MLB betting matchups after a 2-1 Sunday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model is keen on a total in scorching Atlanta on Wednesday with the Brewers visiting the Braves.
For additional betting insights, check out:
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, August 07, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
Facing Hot Offense
Yes, Chris Sale of the Braves and Freddy Peralta of the Brewers are both among the best pitchers in the league. However, this still looks like a low total for two good offenses playing in ideal hitting conditions, as the forecast is calling for a temperature of 90 degrees at game time with a hot breeze blowing out to center at 9 MPH.
Chris Sale is currently favored on the betting odds to win the NL Cy Young Award this season, and for good reason. He comes in at 13-3 while ranking third in the majors in ERA at 2.71 and also third in xFIP at 2.65. He has regained velocity on his fastball to 94.3 MPH from 93.3 MPH last season, nicely complementing his wipeout slider rated 119 on Stuff+.
With that being said, the expected weather conditions should work against all pitchers tonight and Chris is facing a hot offense. Granted, Milwaukee is only slightly above average in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers for the whole season at 104. However, the Brewers have been hotter than the Atlanta weather against southpaws since July 1st with a wRC+ of 137 against them to go along with a hefty .842 OPS during this time.
Home Run Prone
Peralta enters with sub-par numbers by his standards at 6-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 3.68 xFIP, although most pitchers would be happy with that. And Peralta does have his customarily high strikeout rate of 11.14/9 with his velocity at a career-high 94.4 MPH. However, his weaknesses can be exposed tonight under these hitting conditions.
You see, Freddy Peralta has an ordinary groundball rate of 37.9%, and much of his air contact allowed has been hard at an above average 30.5%. This has resulted in a home run rate allowed of 1.35/9 which ranks 14th highest in the majors. And that is under mostly normal weather conditions, so his propensity for giving up the long ball should get magnified in this weather, not to mention facing an Atlanta lineup ranked eighth in the league in home runs with 138 over 112 games.
The Pick
So while we respect both starting pitchers, we are betting on the Over with both offenses more than capable of taking advantage of the anticipated hitter-friendly weather.
Predicted Score: Braves 6 – Brewers 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-124) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
