Brewers vs. Giants Best Bet Wednesday: Scoring Scarce in San Francisco
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LT Profits
- September 11, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Wednesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays that, based on the current MLB odds, we feel have the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in the Bay Area on Wednesday with the Brewers visiting the Giants.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 – 09:45 PM ET at Oracle Park
We expect a nice pitching duel at Oracle Park and are backing the Under when reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and the Giants play host to Colin Rea and the Brewers.
Back in Cy Young Form
Snell has had a history of starting seasons very slowly and then having fantastic second halves, and this year has been no different. Sure, he is just 2-3 through 17 starts, but with a 3.62 ERA, 3.28 xFIP and a fantastic strikeout rate of 12.00/9. That is over only 87 innings due to a belated season debut, but even that late start has not changed Snell’s customary pattern.
Blake had a horrific 9.51 ERA and 4.25 xFIP through the end of May. Since then, he has allowed three runs or less in 12 straight starts since June 1st, allowing two runs or less 10 times. This has equated to an amazing 1.73 ERA and 3.04 xFIP during this span with a hefty strikeout rate of 12.18/9. So, Snell is back in his Cy Young form of last year except with nothing to show for it with the Giants struggling to score runs.
Less Fastballs is Good
As for Rea, he is having the best season of his Major League career at the age of 34. He comes in at 12-4 with a 3.73 ERA, having allowed three runs of less in seven of his last nine outings including allowing two runs or less in six of them. Now, we are usually skeptical of pitchers having career years at an advanced age, but in this case, there is a reason for the improvement with that being a change in repertoire.
You see, Collin has lowered his fastball usage to just 18.5% this season. His primary pitches have become his heavy 92.2 MPH sinker, his slider rated 110 on Stuff+ and a curveball rated 101. And the end-results speak for themselves.
Rea also benefits here from facing a San Francisco offense ranked 23rd in wRC+ against right-handers at 93.
The Pick
So, with Snell in peak form, and Rea showing vast improvement and also facing a weak offense, bet the Under in San Francisco Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Giants 3 – Brewers 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
