MLB Pick: Over 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
There is a full slate of Major League Baseball for Friday with all 30 MLB teams in action. And, as usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current betting odds available at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
The next game that catches my interest is the Milwaukee Brewers facing off against the Baltimore Orioles.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Pirates vs. Phillies and Reds vs. White Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, continue reading for a detailed analysis.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, April 12, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
In a game with two offenses both trending upwards, we are betting the Over at a modest number when Freddy Peralta and the Brewers visit Tyler Wells and the Orioles on Friday’s matchup.
Pitch Count?
While we are big fans of Peralta and he may be in line for his best season yet, we simply do not like this spot for him. After a sharp season debut where he was pulled after six innings despite allowing just one hit with eight strikeouts, he was not as sharp last out. He allowed three earned runs while lasting 5.2 innings against the Mariners, and we suspect he will not be allowed to go beyond six innings again tonight.
It does not help that he is facing a Baltimore offense that is starting to come around after a slow start. The Orioles just scored 23 runs in a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox scoring at least seven runs in every game. They are now above average in wRC+ at 104 after being well below before that series, and that figure has ballooned to 130 against right-handers, second-best in baseball.
Back to Reality?
Wells may have overachieved for the Orioles last season when his good 3.64 ERA was accompanied by a less stellar 4.63 xFIP. Well, he is pitching at the latter level through his first two starts this season with a 4.76 ERA, which is probably close to his proper level. And he too is facing a hot offense.
The difference though is that while the Orioles are just now heating up, the Milwaukee offense has been good from the start. However, even the Brewers are reaching new heights with 36 runs in the last four games. Milwaukee is fifth in the majors in wRC+ at 119 and they too have been better against righties at 125.
The Pick
Just about the only risk we see for this Over is if Peralta is stretched out going more than six innings, but that seems factored into this relatively low posted total. So, look for the offenses to prevail in an Over at Camden Yards.
Predicted Score: Orioles 6 – Brewers 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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