MLB Pick: Over 11.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Over belongs in Tuesday’s MLB bets at top sportsbooks when the Colorado Rockies welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to the Mile High City.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Tuesday, July 02, 2024 – 08:40 PM ET at Coors Field
I wish I could tell you some good things about Dallas Keuchel. I don’t mean him as a person, or even as a former American League Cy Young winner – I’m talking about Tuesday’s game against the Colorado Rockies, at Coors Field, where Keuchel will start for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Do you like dingers? There’s a total of 11.5 runs on the MLB odds board at Heritage Sports, with the Over at a bargain price of –103; putting Keuchel on the mound should get us halfway there, and Ryan Feltner (Over 13-2-1) can do the rest.
What’s Wrong With Dallas Keuchel?
His best years are behind him. Keuchel is 36 years old, and almost a decade removed from his Cy Young campaign in 2015. Milwaukee is his fifth team in three seasons – not including his brief stay in the Seattle Mariners farm system, which ended on June 25 when they traded him to the Brewers for $1.
Tuesday will be Keuchel’s second start for Milwaukee. The first was June 26 versus the Texas Rangers, who lit Keuchel up for five earned runs in four innings, including a pair of home runs. Final score: Texas 5, Milwaukee 6 (Over 8.5) in extras.
Imagine the carnage now that the scene is shifting from Milwaukee to Denver. Keuchel has pitched twice before at Coors Field, giving up 10 earned runs over 7.2 combined innings with a 1.096 OPS:
- July 2, 2022: Arizona 7, Colorado 11 (Over 12.5)
- September 30, 2023: Minnesota 14, Colorado 6 (Over 13)
To be fair, that second game was a mop-up relief performance, where Keuchel allowed the last four Rockies runs in 2.2 innings of work. And 7.2 innings total is a very small sample size to hang around his neck. But this is an elder arm who rarely reached 90 mph when he was at the top of his game. Keuchel is the soft-tosser we’re looking for in Denver’s Mile High air.
What’s Wrong With Ryan Feltner?
Not as much as his ERA would have you believe. And it’s eerie how consistent that number has been over Feltner’s last three seasons with the Rockies:
- 2022: 5.83 ERA (4.43 xFIP)
- 2023: 5.82 ERA (5.30 xFIP)
- 2024: 5.82 ERA (3.98 xFIP)
There’s no question that Feltner’s personal 13-2-1 Over record is unsustainable, even at Coors Field (7.43 ERA in seven starts this year). And he’s only 27 years old; this is Feltner’s fourth year in the bigs, after a cup of coffee in 2021. He’s also got a 95-mph fastball that he throws about a third of the time.
To add another fly to our ointment, current Brewers batters have a combined .500 lifetime OPS off Feltner, leading to the following scores – both in Denver:
- September 5, 2022: Milwaukee 6, Colorado 4 (Under 11.5)
- May 2, 2023: Milwaukee 2, Colorado 3 (Under 11)
As you can see, Feltner isn’t the ideal dance partner for Keuchel when it comes to our baseball picks. But our Over should get some help from the Rockies bullpen, which ranks No. 29 out of the 30 Major League Baseball teams in FanGraphs WAR (Wins Above Replacement).
The Pick
I’d be remiss if I didn’t also mention that Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks fifth in WAR. And that Tuesday’s weather forecast has 10-mph winds breezing down the first-base line. It’s going to be a warm night in Denver with temperatures around 85 degrees, but keep that bet size small to account for these other complications, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 11.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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