Broncos vs. Chiefs NFL Week 10 Picks: Is the Total Too Low?

Denver Couldn’t Stop Baltimore

The Ravens dominated the Broncos on Sunday, scoring on seven consecutive drives to secure a commanding 41-10 win.

Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix provided a brief spark, catching a touchdown on a trick play, but the Broncos were outmatched from the start. Entering the game, Denver’s defense had only allowed two teams to score more than 20 points this season, but Baltimore’s high-powered offense quickly exposed their vulnerabilities.

After an early interception by Nix, the Broncos defense initially held firm, but a turnover on downs set up a 57-yard Ravens drive capped by Henry’s seven-yard touchdown run.

Denver’s struggles continued when Nix overthrew an open Troy Franklin on another fourth-down attempt, leading to a Baltimore field goal and a 10-0 lead.

Denver finally found the end zone on a fourth-down trick play, with receiver Courtland Sutton tossing a reverse pass to Nix for a touchdown from the Baltimore 2. Nix’s catch at the goal line briefly closed the gap, but the Ravens responded emphatically.

Nix finished with 223 passing yards, bringing his season total to 1,753—breaking the Broncos’ rookie passing record previously held by Mickey Slaughter, who tallied 1,689 yards. Nix surpassed John Elway’s 1983 debut season total of 1,663 yards.

Kansas City Stays Undefeated

Patrick Mahomes completed all five passes on the only drive of overtime against the Buccaneers. Despite an ankle injury, Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, while Kareem Hunt contributed 106 rushing yards and scored the game-winning touchdown from 2 yards out, sealing a 30-24 victory on Monday.

DeAndre Hopkins, in his first home game since joining Kansas City from Tennessee, caught eight passes for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Kelce also had a big day, with 14 catches for 100 yards.

Despite missing key defensive players, Kansas City’s defense held Baker Mayfield to 200 passing yards and two touchdowns while limiting Tampa Bay’s run game to just 95 yards.

The Chiefs’ 14th consecutive win marked the NFL’s longest streak since Carolina’s 14-0 start in 2014 and made Kansas City only the sixth Super Bowl champion to open the following season 8-0. They’ve also come from behind to win in the second half of their last eight games, including playoffs.

The Buccaneers had a late opportunity to take the lead when Mayfield connected with Ryan Miller for a touchdown with 27 seconds left. However, head coach Todd Bowles opted to kick the extra point, leading to the Bucs’ fourth loss in five games.

Key Matchups

Nix has shown flashes of potential for Denver, breaking the team’s rookie passing record, but inconsistency and turnovers have plagued the Broncos. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense, led by Mahomes, has proven unstoppable even in the face of adversity, with Hopkins adding a new dimension to the receiving corps.

This AFC West showdown will likely hinge on whether Denver’s defense can withstand Kansas City’s high-powered attack and if Nix can limit mistakes against the Chiefs’ opportunistic defense.

Bo Nix vs. Chiefs’ Defense

Nix has showcased his arm strength and has already broken Denver’s rookie passing record, but his inexperience has led to some critical errors. Kansas City’s defense, which has consistently applied pressure and forced mistakes, will look to capitalize on any risky throws Nix might make.

If the Chiefs can force turnovers or set Nix off-balance with pressure, it could make it a long day for the rookie. However, Nix’s ability to hit deep shots to players like Franklin could keep Kansas City’s defense on its toes.

Kareem Hunt vs. Broncos’ Run Defense

Hunt is coming off a 106-yard rushing performance against the Buccaneers and will look to wear down a Broncos defense that’s struggled in high-stakes moments. Denver’s defense, which held up well early against Baltimore before eventually caving, will need to be more consistent if they hope to keep the game within reach.

Hunt’s physical style could exploit Denver’s defense if they falter late in drives, especially if Mahomes stretches the field to open up the run game.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Broncos’ Secondary

In his Kansas City home debut, Hopkins was a reliable target with two touchdowns and 86 receiving yards. Denver’s secondary will be challenged to contain him, especially as Mahomes likes to spread the field and find Hopkins in key situations.

If Hopkins can make big plays, it could force Denver into a defensive bind, opening up room for other Kansas City weapons.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Denver’s success in this game may largely depend on how well they protect the ball. With a rookie quarterback under center, turnovers could be the deciding factor.

The Chiefs’ defense has shown an ability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and if they can pressure Nix into a few key errors, Kansas City might create short fields for their offense, giving them a major advantage.

The Broncos must also capitalize on any red-zone opportunities, as Kansas City’s defense has been particularly effective in holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns.

The Pick

The Chiefs are likely to start strong, leveraging Mahomes’ experience and the receiving duo of Hopkins and Kelce to put early pressure on the Broncos’ defense. Nix may have moments of success, particularly with well-designed plays to Franklin, but his rookie mistakes could haunt Denver in key situations.

Kansas City’s balanced offensive approach and Hunt’s reliability on the ground give them the advantage if they establish an early lead. The Broncos’ defense may keep it close initially, but the Chiefs’ depth and playmaking ability should ultimately help them pull away in a high-scoring game.

The Chiefs-Raiders game from October 27 also had a low total and I recommended the Over. The plan worked then and I’m sure it will work again here. 

NFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Over 41.5 (-108)

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