Broncos vs. Bills AFC Wild Card Round Pick: Nix’s Playoff Baptism

Can Denver Win the Turnover Battle?

In a matchup like this, the turnover battle should be huge.

These teams did not meet this year, but they met in Buffalo on a Monday night in the 2023 season. The Bills turned the ball over 4 times, which helped Denver to short fields and a 24-22 win at the end.

The turnovers were such a problem for Buffalo that it fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after that game and replaced him with Joe Brady, who has done a great job since. This year, the Bills have only turned the ball over 8 times, a single-season record for a 17-game season. Only the 2019 Saints (16 games) also had 8 giveaways.

Meanwhile, the Bills have forced 32 takeaways, so they are +24 in that department, and that’s why they have been so dominant with field position where they lead the league this year. But the thing about turnovers is they tend to regress to the mean, and it’s just not sustainable for a team to go through an entire season without anyone but the quarterback losing a fumble as Allen has both of Buffalo’s lost fumbles.

In fact, the Bills have a league-low 2 lost fumbles and have recovered a league-high 16 opponent fumbles. That kind of fumble luck is absurd and shouldn’t continue throughout the playoffs.

Turnovers and Red Zone Execution

It is hard to see Denver winning if it can’t force the Bills into some of those mistakes. On the season, Denver has turned it over 19 times while taking it away 25 times for a respectable +6 differential with a rookie quarterback.

Bo Nix threw 4 picks in Weeks 1-2, calmed down, then he had 5 picks against the Browns and Colts in the last month. He’ll have to be careful against a veteran secondary like Buffalo, coached by a defensive guru in Sean McDermott. Maybe the good news is that Nix has done a better job of not throwing picks on the road this year.

But Denver will need to win the turnover battle and not give short fields to Allen, or this thing could get out of hand early and snowball from there. However, the Broncos have done a very good job of staying in every game this year except for their rout in Baltimore, and even in that game, Nix had numerous red-zone opportunities that he just didn’t cash in for points.

The Broncos are not a great team yet, but they are a competitive one that could hang with the Bills here after Buffalo was only playing bad division competition in the last 3 weeks as Denver fought for its playoff lives to get in as the No. 7 seed.

Denver Has Better Defense But Is It Enough?

We know Buffalo has the edge at quarterback and offense here, but let’s not forget that the postseason means your defense needs to deliver too. On the season, the Broncos finished No. 1 in points per drive allowed, and they have some really standout defenders like Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto.

As for Buffalo, we have seen better defensive squads in past years.

The Bills get a lot of takeaways, but they are only 26th in yards per drive and 18th in points per drive allowed. Those back-to-back games indoors against the Rams (44-42) and Lions (48-42) really destroyed the stats for this defense, but they also were crushed by Baltimore with 35 points earlier this year.

They haven’t played their best against the best competition on that side of the ball this year, and that’s why Buffalo is just 2-3 against playoff teams. However, it’s true that the Bills are 8-0 at home and have scored at least 30 points in every home game except for the 24-17 win over New England in Week 16. That game even included a defensive fumble return touchdown, so the Patriots were the last team to hold Allen to 17 points in a game.

Broncos Offense Needs to Deliver

Still, the Broncos are going to have to expect some decent scoring out of Nix and the offense to compete in this one.

Fortunately, Denver has scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games coming into these playoffs, tied for the 2nd-longest streak in franchise history. That’s saying something for a franchise that had multiple Super Bowl seasons with John Elway and Peyton Manning at quarterback. Maybe Sean Payton still has some magic left in that coaching brain.

With Buffalo’s defense not being as sturdy as it was in past seasons, Nix and the offense need to get the job done on their end if they want to pull off the upset. But one issue is that the running game doesn’t always perform as expected. Even in Sunday’s 38-0 rout of Kansas City’s backups, Nix led the team with 47 rushing yards. That’s not a good formula for playoff success or playing in Buffalo.

Also, the Denver defense has something to prove as it did underwhelm on the road against winning teams with solid offenses like the Ravens, Bengals and Chargers. The Bills are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league this decade, so they need to shoot for holding them under 30 at least to give the offense a shot.

Broncos vs. Bills (-8.5): Who Covers the Spread?

Historically, the Bills have done well in playoff openers under McDermott-Allen with a 4-1 SU record, including 4-0 at home since 2020. However, they’re hit or miss with the spread as they beat the 2020 Colts and 2022 Dolphins by a field goal each even with the latter starting third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson in a game marred by turnovers.

The Bills crushed the Steelers 31-17 last year, who were also starting a third-string quarterback in Mason Rudolph. Nix is a rookie but he’s getting better as the season has gone on, and the Broncos have only lost a single game by more than 7 points (41-10 in Baltimore).

Buffalo is no stranger to multi-possession wins and rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in the playoffs. But I think I would buck conventional wisdom and trust that an experienced playoff coach like Payton will have enough in the tank to cover the spread and keep it a one-score game for your NFL picks this Sunday afternoon.

NFL Pick: Broncos +8.5 (-105) at Bovada

Broncos +8.5 (-105)

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