Broncos vs. Saints Thursday Night Football Pick: New Orleans Marches to Victory

Two Impactful Injuries

Both teams will most likely enter Thursday’s game with a key injury.

Denver’s best cornerback and top overall defender, Patrick Surtain II, sustained a concussion during literally his first action on defense last Sunday. It is highly unlikely that he could make it through the NFL’s concussion protocol on time even if this game were on Sunday instead of Thursday.

The same is true for Chris Olave. New Orleans’ best wide receiver also sustained a concussion when his team was still scoreless early in last Sunday’s game.

Denver Missed Surtain

It is no coincidence that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert had his best game of the season after Surtain exited the contest.

Surtain is extremely important to Denver’s defense because he is able to lock down his portion of the field. He reliably limits the production of opposing wide receivers. Thanks to his absence, Herbert achieved a season-high 237 passing yards, whereas he had failed to reach 180 passing yards in each of his previous four games.

Did Denver Adjust In The Second Half?

Those inclined to bet on Denver will want to claim that the Broncos figured out how to play well without Surtain. It is true that, in the second half, the Chargers scored three points, whereas they had scored 20 points in the first half.

First of all, L.A.’s low-scoring second half is not a consequence of anything that Denver did. This is evident in the fact that, every week, the Chargers fail to be productive in the second half. They rank dead-last in second-half points per game.

Because they were up 20-0, they were less likely to reverse their second-half scoring woes. On the one drive, in which they scored points, Herbert remained aggressive enough to challenge Denver’s defense with a deep ball. Conversely, the play-by-play for every other drive shows a radical dedication to running the ball and to executing short passes.

Missing Surtain, Missing Stops

L.A.’s offense was, in sum, unproductive against Denver because it parked the bus, going into conservative mode in order to drain the clock and protect its large lead — Denver’s offense had zero points, so it was failing to push Herbert’s offense.

The key takeaway is that, without Surtain, Denver’s defense gave up 20 first-half points. Herbert managed to achieve so many chunk plays, passing to guys who many NFL fans would not have even heard of. Four different Chargers pass-catchers had at least one reception go for 20 or more yards, as the Broncos’ coverage was strained.

Spencer Rattler’s First Career Start

I am impressed by the high-scoring output achieved by the Saints last week.

It was rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler’s first professional start. He helped the Saints score 20 offensive points (they also returned a punt for a touchdown), and he did so without the help of injured Chris Olave. While his passer rating was poor, this is to be expected in his first-ever start, where he has yet to develop much chemistry with his wide receivers and he’s possibly also nervous.

The fact that impresses me is that his passer rating last week was higher than number one draft pick Caleb Williams’ was in his first-ever start.

Rattler’s Learning Curve

Most of the positives that are available to take away from Rattler’s performance center on what he did in the first half. He showed arm talent, decisiveness, and mobility throughout the game, and his stat line was strong in the first half.

Tampa Bay’s coach caused him to struggle in the second half by intensifying defensive pressure. At South Carolina, Rattler successfully dealt with poor offensive line play and increased pressure from the defense. So, he is certainly capable, psychologically and physically, of thriving despite pressure from the defense.

Tampa Bay’s defense did him a huge favor by forcing his coaches to make the necessary adjustments to help him succeed under pressure in this offense. Rattler’s growth will be more exponential because of the lack of preparation that he had for this spot — he was not named the number two quarterback, and it was Jake Haener who stepped in for Carr when Carr sustained his injury two games ago.

Are We Worried About New Orleans’ Defense?

We can’t ignore what the fact of New Orleans conceding 51 points last week says about its defense, but we also can’t overstate things either. Heading into this season, the Saints’ defense boasted a strong reputation. This reputation was rather undeserved.

Last year, the Saints’ defense gave up high-scoring totals and allowed its team to fall behind by double digits to teams with good offenses, like Jacksonville and Detroit. New Orleans performed excellently, however, against teams with bad offenses. Things are no different this year.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, for Tampa Bay, owns the second-highest passer rating in the NFL. He has the keys to a great offense, which includes former All-Pro selection Chris Godwin. The Saints’ struggles against Tampa Bay and against a Kansas City team whose quarterback is obviously elite say nothing about what they are capable of doing against lower-quality offenses.

New Orleans held Atlanta to 12 offensive points and limited the Eagles, who are a lesser offense without their top wide receiver, to 15 points. They likewise held Carolina to ten points and Dallas to 19 points.

Denver’s Lack of Production on Offense

Denver’s offense is anemic largely because its quarterback, Bo Nix, is so inaccurate. While he lacks effective weapons in the passing game, he also fails to help his pass-catchers succeed.

Nix throws a lot of interceptions — he has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns — and the Saints’ defense has proven to be good at amassing interceptions, as when it picked off Mayfield three times.

So it is fair for his coaching staff to aim to be conservative in order to protect him. However, the consequence is that Denver typically struggles to score until the game is out of reach. The Broncos fell behind 23-0 to the Chargers last week, scoring only when the Chargers’ defense relaxed with a soft zone and when Nix’s coaching staff let him loose.

Overall, Denver ranks 27th in first-half scoring.

Saints in Control

For the Saints, Rattler will feel more comfortable, without feeling that he needs to make things happen quickly because Denver’s offense won’t push him.

In order to win, the Broncos will need this game to be close enough in the second half for Nix’s usual uptick in later-game productivity to be consequential. However, a better performance from Rattler will keep this game out of reach for Denver.

Takeaway

New Orleans’ defense has struggled against good tight ends, the best mobile quarterback and high-level wide receivers. Denver has none of those pieces.

It has relied on soft defensive play in order to attain respectable scoring outputs. The Saints, however, feast on lower-quality offenses. Facing less pressure from the opposing offense, Rattler will take a strong step forward in what will be his second professional game.

Denver’s defense, even when facing unknown wide receivers, is not effective without its top cornerback — the Chargers scored 20 points before they parked the bus except on a drive that ended in an additional three points — whereas Rattler could build chemistry and connect with many weapons after Olave’s injury.

It is tempting to go against the Saints because they were just blown out, but, as evident in their ability to recover from a 17-0 hole with a rookie quarterback, they are still fighting.

On Thursday, they will show that they have what it takes to beat Denver.

NFL Pick: Saints ML (-120) at Bovada

Saints ML (-120)

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