Browns vs. Broncos Monday Night Football Picks: Rocky Mountain Low (Scoring)

Who are we to doubt Bo Nix? Everywhere he’s gone, from Auburn to Oregon and now the Denver Broncos (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS), Nix has shown flashes of greatness. Is he the next Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels? Probably not, but he is the first Bo Nix, and the Broncos are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in his last six starts.

So of course the sharps are betting on the Cleveland Browns (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) for this week’s Monday Night Football picks. Wait, what? That’s what it says here on the NFL odds board; as we go to press, Cleveland has been bet down from +6.5 at the open to +5.5 at Bookmaker, with the BMR consensus reports showing 73% support for the Browns.

Okay, so Cleveland beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5 away) 24-19 last week. And they beat Baltimore (-7 away) 29-24 in Week 8. They’re definitely a better team with Jameis Winston at quarterback than Deshaun Watson, but they did lose their other two games SU and ATS with Winston at the controls.

It’s tempting to put Denver in our Week 13 NFL picks now that they’ve moved to -5.5, but we’re still not convinced there’s enough betting value on the Broncos. How about that Under instead? Monday’s total has jumped from 40 all the way to 42.5, this time with 83% consensus from the peanut gallery. We’ll fade that for a dollar.

Is Bo Nix Good?

He’s playing like it. Nix had his ups and downs at Auburn, where he was SEC Freshman of the Year in 2019 before getting hurt and bailing for Oregon. Then Nix blossomed in Eugene, where he finished third in the 2023 Heisman Trophy race while winning the William V. Campbell Trophy – the “academic Heisman.”

Having a big brain is good when you’re a quarterback. Nix played five mostly full seasons in college and set the NCAA record with 61 career starts; he’s already a man at age 24, and while Nix got off to a rough start in his first year as a pro, his learning curve has been remarkable.

So why are we taking the Under instead? Because of Denver’s defense, which ranks third in the league at minus-0.13 EPA (Expected Points Added, as per nfelo) per play. We’re also not buying the Winston hype, if you can call it that; Winston’s plus-0.07 EPA per dropback (No. 21 overall) is far better than Watson’s minus-0.21 EPA (No. 44), and the Over is 3-1 in his four starts, but only because that win over Pittsburgh had a total of 37.

The Pick

We’d be a lot happier about this pick here at the ranch if Monday turned into a classic Mile High snow game. It’s snowing right now in Denver as I write this, but things are supposed to clear up tomorrow and remain mostly sunny well into next week. Nerts.

We’d also be happier if the total bumped up to at least 43. We’ve already moved off the magic number 40 for totals, and crossed the even more magical 41. Now we’ve got our sights set on the most important total of them all, at least according to Wizard of Odds; the “fair price” of moving a half-point onto or off 43 is estimated at 9.45 cents of vig.

It might not snow again Monday, but the total just might reach 43 points by kick-off, or even beyond if we’re patient enough. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Under 42.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.