Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football Picks: Wetter Is Not Better
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Jason Lake
- October 30, 2024
NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
This was going to be one of the easier football picks we’ve made in a while at the online sportsbooks. Of course the Over is the right call for Monday night’s tilt between Tampa Bay (Over 6-2) and Kansas City (Under 4-3), with that manageable 45.5-point total on the NFL odds board and the –108 vigorish at Heritage Sports. The Bucs might score 46 points themselves, or give up that many.
Then those Super Genius senses kicked in. This is an outdoor game, at night, in November, in Kansas City. Monday’s weather report isn’t all that great when it comes to the Over – but conditions are supposed to improve right around kick-off. So we’ve got a cunning plan: Wait for further reports closer to game day, and be prepared to take Tampa Bay +9 instead if it looks nasty enough.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, November 04, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at GEHA Field
How Bad Is Tampa Bay’s Defense?
It’s pretty bad.
Going by everyone’s favorite advanced metric these days, EPA (Expected Points above Average, aka Expected Points Added), the Bucs’ defense is the sixth-worst in the league at plus-0.07 per play, as per the numbers at nfelo. The average NFL offense runs about 66 plays per game, so Tampa’s defense is allowing an additional 4.62 points above expectation.
Most of that weakness is in their pass defense, which is also sixth-worst at plus-0.18 EPA per attempt. You know Patrick Mahomes is licking his chops right about now – more on that in a moment. But on the other side of the ball, QB Baker Mayfield (21 TD, 9 INT) is slinging it around enough to lift Tampa’s offense to No. 7 (plus-0.06 EPA per play) on the nfelo charts. And that’s how you get a team with a 6-2 Over record.
Is DeAndre Hopkins Washed?
That seems a bit harsh, but yes, yes he is.
DeAndre Hopkins is in the twilight of what has been an amazing NFL career, including three straight years as an All-Pro. But the last of those years was 2019 with the Houston Texans.
In retrospect, it was wise for Houston to sell at the top. They traded Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals for RB David Johnson and a pair of picks, and Arizona got one Pro Bowl season out of Hopkins before they cut him loose in May 2023, just before he turned 31. Playing for the Tennessee Titans did nothing to elevate his profile.
That doesn’t mean Hopkins won’t help Kansas City’s offense. Even those three targets (two catches for 29 yards) he saw in his K.C. debut gave value to their 27-20 win over the Las Vegas Raiders (Over 43). With that additional threat downfield, Mahomes had arguably his best game of the season, although his raw numbers still don’t leap off the page: 262 passing yards and two touchdowns with a pick.
The Pick
As we go to press, Monday’s report at AccuWeather calls for thundershowers during the day, but partly cloudy skies at game time and temperatures around 50, with 15mph winds gusting up to 24. It’s already better than it looked when I started writing this, especially with the wind – but we’re still going to recommend pressing the pause button on your Monday Night Football picks, just in case.
If things look suitably damp and windy closer to kick-off, Plan B is to hammer the Bucs as 9-point puppies. Lower scores make it harder for favorites to cover big spreads, so bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Over 45.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
