Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Sunday Night Football Pick: Baker’s Toys for Christmas

Is Tampa Bay a Legitimate Contender?

While some were ready to bury the Buccaneers this year when they were 4-6, let’s not forget that they were 4-7 last year before rallying to win the NFC South with a 9-8 record. They also still won a playoff game against the Eagles and gave the Lions a battle in the divisional round.

A similar thing is happening this year. The Buccaneers started 4-6 while facing one of the toughest schedules in the league as the Saints were the only real “gimme game” in that stretch. Since the bye, the schedule has lightened up immensely, and the Buccaneers are 4-0 to regain the lead in the NFC South over Atlanta.

But before you write off the Buccaneers as a fraud that only beats bad teams, let’s not go there. This was the only team to beat Detroit before the Bills did last week. They won 20-16 in Detroit as they held that offense to a season-low in points. The Buccaneers also crushed the Eagles 33-16, and while people will point to Philadelphia’s injured wide receivers in that game, they still shredded Vic Fangio’s defense and held Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in check. That’s another impressive win.

Elite Offense Emerges

The Bucs also started their season with a 37-20 win over Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, who have proven to be a solid team. Then the Buccaneers also pushed the Chiefs to overtime in Arrowhead despite not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin available.

But since Evans returned, Baker Mayfield is dealing again, and he just threw for 4 touchdowns on the Chargers, who were the No. 1 scoring defense before that game. They technically still are even though they’ve fallen to No. 4 in points per drive allowed.

The Buccaneers also piled up 506 yards in that game. This is an elite offense when you have Evans, tight end Cade Otton, and rookie wideout Jalen McMillan has 3 touchdowns in the last couple of games. Evans is seeking another 1,000-yard season after missing some games to injury, so you know he’ll want to have a huge showing like Ja’Marr Chase had for the Bengals in Dallas 2 weeks ago.

But there’s also the running game with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White making explosive plays. The Buccaneers are 4th in rushing yards and No. 2 in yards per carry this season. This is one of the best running games in the league, and Mayfield is completing 70.8% of his passes with a career-high 32 touchdown passes already.

The defense may be shaky as far as winning a championship this year, but if the offense shows up, this team can score with anyone in the NFL.

How Can Dallas Pull Off the Upset?

The Cowboys are actually 3-1 in their last 4 games, a huge change from earlier this season when they trailed by 20 points in every home game, setting an NFL record by doing that in 6 straight home games going back to January’s playoff loss against the Packers.

Dallas has done that in the last month, but we said Tampa Bay can score with the best of them. But the obvious great equalizer in a game like this is turnovers. That’s the one area that is holding Mayfield back from MVP talk as he’s thrown 14 interceptions and has fumbled 12 times. So, he can get charitable with the ball in a Jameis Winston type of way.

Turnover Tango

The Dallas defense used to be great at forcing takeaways under coordinator Dan Quinn, who took the Washington job in 2024. New coordinator Mike Zimmer has seen his defense force 19 turnovers, including 10 during this 3-1 stretch. So, that is something Mayfield will have to be conscious of as Micah Parsons is back for the defense and can get you with a strip-sack.

On offense, the Cowboys are still feeding CeeDee Lamb under Rush, and the Buccaneers have struggled with some prolific receivers this year. It could be a big night for Lamb as he tries to match what Evans does for Tampa Bay.

The running game hasn’t been great for Dallas on the season, but it has rushed for 211 and 156 yards in the last 2 games, the team’s best games this season. The Buccaneers rank No. 11 in rushing yards allowed but only No. 22 in yards per carry. The Bucs also haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards since Week 9 in Kansas City.

Still, winning the turnover battle is the No. 1 key to a Dallas upset.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (+3.5): Who Covers the Spread?

The game may not actually be that bad if the Cowboys that have consistently been scoring 20-plus points show up for this one. Those days of the team getting blown out at home are hopefully in the past. They can certainly take advantage of a Mayfield turnover (or 2) to stay in this game.

However, the Buccaneers should win and cover. Their offense is too lethal to not have success in Dallas through the air and on the ground as the Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the league. It could be a huge night for Irving again.

Tampa’s top 5 rushing games this season have all come on the road actually. Both of their games with over 40 points and 500 yards were also on the road. They have scored at least 20 points in every game except for the 26-7 dud in a home loss to the Broncos early this season.

Tampa is not the “win close” type of team that some in the NFL are. This year 7-of-8 Tampa Bay wins have been by at least 4 points, including 6 wins by at least 15 points already.

It could be 27-20 like the Bengals-Cowboys game was a couple of weeks ago, but let’s trust Baker and the Bucs to take care of business and get the cover for your NFL picks this Sunday night.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-115) at Bovada

Buccaneers -3.5 (-115)

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