BYU vs. Alabama March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bet

In a matchup of two excellent offenses in the Sweet 16 Thursday, it is the second seeds from the East in Alabama that scored the most points in the country while coming out of the best conference in the SEC. We feel that will be too much for sixth seeded BYU to overcome and are backing the Crimson Tide as manageable favorites.

Highest Scoring Team in Nation

Alabama is 27-8 and finished third in the SEC with a 13-5 conference mark. And remember that conference has lived up to the hype with seven teams making the Sweet 16, with even lower seeds in Mississippi and Arkansas pulling second-round upsets to get here.

And while most of those SEC teams advanced with great defense, the Crimson Tide are mostly about their offense, leading the country in scoring at a robust 90.8 points per game. They play at a frenetic pace that leads the country in Tempo Rating, yet they are fourth nationally in offensive efficiency, an indication that they are mostly under control despite the hectic tempo.

The Tide may be only an above average 3-point shooting team at 35.0%, but they make up for that with volume with a high 45.6% 3PA/FTA ratio. And Alabama has been basically unstoppable closer to the basket, ranking third in 2-point shooting at a balmy 60.0%.

Moreover, the Crimson Tide even grade out better defensively here, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency and 35th in eFG% allowed, compared to 71st and 166th rankings in those two categories respectively for BYU.

Prefer Slow Pace

Now, make no mistake, the Cougars have also gotten here mostly on the strength of their offense. BYU sits at 26-9 and finished fourth in the Big 12 at 14-6, and they currently rank ninth in offensive efficiency and sixth in eFG%. They have the higher 3-point shooting percentage here at 37.3%, and while their 58.4% 2-point shooting is sixth in the land, this is a rare case where that figure rather pales compared to their opponents.

It is also interesting that while the Cougs rank a great 26th in the nation in scoring, their average of 81.2 points is nine points lower than Alabama. That points to their preferred slower pace as they rank 178th in Tempo Rating. Unfortunately, we see them getting drawn into the Tide’s fast pace here, especially if Alabama starts hitting shots early.

After all, no team has really been able to slow the Crimson Tide down much all year. For a point of reference, look no further back than the second round, where Bama scored 80 points in a 70-possession game against the team that plays at the fifth slowest pace out of 364 Division I teams in Saint Mary’s.

So, in a game between two great offenses, Alabama’s has simply been better while coming out of the better conference, and this game figures to be played at their preferred faster pace. Add in a noticeably better defense and bet on the Crimson Tide as moderate favorites.

Predicted Alabama: Alabama 90 – BYU 80

NCAAB Pick: Alabama -5 (-115) at Bovada 

Alabama -5 (-115)

Visit Site