USA vs. Canada 4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game Picks

How They Got Here

USA brings momentum into the Championship Game, backed by the dominant goaltending of Connor Hellebuyck, who has been the tournament’s best netminder with a .957 save percentage. Canada, meanwhile, is coming off a 5-3 win over Finland yesterday in which its top stars, led by Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, dictated the pace early.

Under the bright lights of a hostile Bell Centre, with 21,105 pro-Canada fans roaring against them, USA made a statement on Saturday.

Jake Guentzel scored twice, and USA secured a spot in the Championship Game with a 3-1 victory over Canada. The win marked USA’s first triumph over their northern rivals in a best-on-best international tournament since the 2010 Vancouver Olympics.

Dylan Larkin added a goal and an assist, while Hellebuyck stood tall in net, stopping 25 shots to backstop USA to victory.

As mentioned before, Canada punched its ticket to the final with a 5-3 win over Finland, eliminating both the Finns and Sweden in the process. The Canadians came out firing, with McDavid and MacKinnon setting the tone by scoring 46 seconds apart early in the first period. Brayden Point added another before the intermission, and MacKinnon later notched his second of the game.

Finland made it interesting with three late goals, cutting the deficit to 4-3 with under two minutes to play, but Sidney Crosby’s empty-netter with 56 seconds left sealed the deal. Now, the rematch against USA is set.

Key Matchups

Their last meeting was a war, featuring three fights in the first nine seconds before USA emerged with the 3-1 win in what was one of the most thrilling games in recent memory. Canada has all the motivation they need for the final.

For Canada to reclaim bragging rights, they’ll need to crack the code against Hellebuyck. The USA netminder has been lights out, allowing just two goals with a .957 save percentage in two starts. He sat out against Sweden on Monday, meaning he’ll be rested and ready for the final.

Discipline will be crucial. USA wants to play with speed and aggression, but they can’t afford to give Canada early power plays. Sweden learned that the hard way. If USA can find the right balance between physicality and control, they’ll be in prime position to repeat their round-robin success. But with everything on the line, expect Canada to come out swinging.

Connor Hellebuyck vs. Canada’s Offense

Canada has proven it can overwhelm teams with its speed and offensive firepower, but so far, no one has solved Hellebuyck. The USA’s goalie has been a brick wall, allowing just two goals in two starts.

Canada’s strategy will likely involve creating more chaos in front of the net, screening Hellebuyck, and generating second-chance opportunities. If Canada can make life uncomfortable for him early, it could shift the momentum in this game.

Jake Guentzel and Dylan Larkin vs. Canada’s Defense

Guentzel and Dylan Larkin have been the engines of the USA offense, and their speed and playmaking ability were a problem for Canada in the round-robin matchup.

The Canadians will need to be more disciplined in transition defense to prevent odd-man rushes, something that burned them in the first meeting. If USA can strike on the counterattack again, they’ll put pressure on Canada to chase the game.

Canada’s Physicality vs. USA’s Discipline

The last time these teams met, the game started with three fights in the first nine seconds. USA walked the fine line between playing with intensity and staying out of the box, but that will be even tougher in the final.

Canada thrives on turning physicality into momentum, and if USA takes early penalties, Canada’s lethal power play could tilt the game in their favor.

Special Teams Battle

Power plays could decide this game. USA needs to stay out of the box, while Canada must capitalize when given the opportunity. USA has done an excellent job killing penalties so far, but if they give Canada too many chances, they’ll be playing with fire.

The Pick

Expect Canada to come out flying, feeding off the energy of the crowd and trying to establish dominance early. If they can score first, it’ll force USA into a more reactive game plan. On the other hand, if Hellebuyck holds strong and USA can get a lead, they’ll try to slow the game down and frustrate Canada.

This game should be a tight, physical battle that goes down to the wire. Ultimately, Canada’s ability to wear down the USA defense and create traffic in front of Hellebuyck could be the difference in a high-scoring game.

4 Nations Face-Off Pick: Over 5.5 (+105) at Bookmaker

Over 5.5 (+105)

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