MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There is a full slate of Major League Baseball for Friday with all 30 MLB teams in action. And, as usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current betting odds available at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
Let’s break down the first game that catches my attention: the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Pirates vs. Phillies and Reds vs. White Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, continue reading for a detailed analysis.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, April 12, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
We are very high on Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks this season, and we are backing him at home hosting Steven Matz and the Cardinals on Friday’s matchup.
Strong Finish to 2023
Do not be fooled by Pfaadt’s overall rookie numbers from last year when he went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 4.46 xFIP. You see, Pfaadt was atrocious upon his initial call-up and was sent back to the minors while owning a 9.82 ERA and 5.55 xFIP. However, after his second recall, he posted a 4.14 ERA and 3.89 xFIP from August 1st onwards with a nice K/BB ratio of 9.82/2.30 per 9.
He also opened 2024 nicely, getting the win over the Rockies allowing one run in five innings with six strikeouts and no walks. Granted, that was followed by a stinker against the tough Braves’ lineup Saturday where he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings, but we expect a bounce-back at home here. He is facing a much weaker St. Louis lineup with an identically bad wRC+ of 81 against both right-handed and left-handed pitching.
Facing Tough Offense
Matz comes in with a 1.74 ERA through two starts, but his 4.47 xFIP is an early red flag. He has just six strikeouts in 10.1 innings, well off his career K-Rate of 8.60/9. That would not be much of a concern this early on if not for his average velocity dropping a bit in his second start to 94.4 MPH from 94.9 MPH in his season debut.
Steven must now deal with an Arizona offense solidly above average in wRC+ at 111 so far this young season. Furthermore, that figure climbs to 123 against left-handers like Matz. In fact, the Diamondbacks are averaging 5.7 runs per game on the year, which always makes them tough to beat when they get good pitching.
The Pick
We feel that Pfaadt will provide that fine pitching tonight against a weak Cardinals’ offense, so bet the Diamondbacks as relatively cheap home favorites.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Cardinals 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-118) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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