The top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 3 between Boston and Cleveland.
For your best bet, I will recommend investing in the “over.”
For more betting advice, check out the following links and our YouTube video:
NBA Pick: Over 212 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, May 11, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland Is Not Miami
Many bettors are noticing that this series is looking a lot like Boston’s first-round series against Miami. In that series, Boston followed its Game 2 catastrophe with a blowout win over the Heat.
While I do believe that the Celtics will bounce back with a win, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a similar sort of scoreline.
Miami scored 84 points in Game 3, but this was a Heat team missing its top scorer. The Heat were offensively rather anemic. You could simply take away their three-point shooting and rely on them to struggle to score inside.
Boston Is Not Orlando
It is difficult, however, to take away Cleveland’s three-point shooting.
When Boston players, after their Game 2 loss, are talking about the need to play better defensively, they are setting up a false narrative. They are letting people think that they played well defensively in Game 1 and that Game 2 was some sort of aberration, that Game 2 was a defensive catastrophe that simply putting in more effort will fix.
However, in Game 1, the Celtics allowed Cleveland nineteen open three-point attempts and nineteen wide-open ones.
The Cavaliers simply did a terrible job of converting their open three-point attempts, making three of them.
Boston is not Orlando, Cleveland’s first-round opponent, in the sense that the Celtics’ defense lacks the same disruptive energy, activity, and toughness.
Donovan Mitchell and Company
Donovan Mitchell is difficult to contain. He can thrive inside, especially against a Boston defense missing its top rim protector, and he can get his teammates involved with a high assist total. In this series, he’s amassed points and assists.
In terms of three-point percentage, Cleveland shoots drastically better at home than on the road. This is largely because Mitchell’s supporting cast tends to step up at home. Max Strus, for example, is 7-for-16 from deep in his last two home games combined. So one has to expect them to take advantage of their three-point shooting opportunities.
As evident in what he did against the Magic, Darius Garland is also capable of doing more than he’s done in this series, especially with Boston’s defense having to struggle to figure out how to contain Mitchell. Cleveland’s three-point shooting has a good chance of succeeding also with its strength of scoring inside – Evan Mobley is showing great comfort now occupying the center position.
Boston’s Offense
It is no fluke that the Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1. Game 2 was unusual for them in that they made just 2 of their 15 open three-point attempts. Boston has the second-best three-point shooting percentage, so one must expect a stronger shooting performance in Game 3.
It’s not simply a matter of conversion rate, though. In Game 1, Boston showed much more energy and ball movement on offense, whereas both were lacking in Game 2, where the Celtics devolved too often into iso mode.
As we’ve seen this postseason with the Mavericks and Pacers, when professionals stagnate and lack energy in one game, they tend to respond by putting forth the necessary effort. Boston, too, locked in after its Game 2 loss last series.
We’ll see more focus and effort from them, although these things will only benefit their offense. Effort and focus won’t alter the deficiencies of their defense that were already visible in Game 1 despite Cleveland’s typical road woes.
NBA Pick: Over 212 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
