Chargers vs. Broncos NFL Week 6 Picks: Bank on Los Angeles to Cover

Chargers Can’t Keep Up With Chiefs

The Chargers suffered a tough 17-10 loss to the Chiefs at SoFi Stadium on September 29.

Despite Justin Herbert’s relentless efforts, the Chargers struggled with a disjointed offensive line and questionable decision-making that ultimately led to their defeat. Once again, Kansas City proved why they’re the team to beat, methodically making the right plays at crucial moments.

Credit goes to the Chargers defense for holding the Chiefs to just 17 points over 10 drives, especially given the offense’s inability to sustain possessions. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has his unit firing on all cylinders, but this level of defensive excellence is difficult to maintain when the offense consistently falters.

Three drives resulted in zero or negative yards, and three others managed just nine or fewer yards. This offensive stagnation gave Kansas City ample opportunities to control field position, which ultimately tilted the game in their favor.

The Chargers still appear to be playing second fiddle in the AFC West. They can push the Chiefs to the brink, but finding the formula to close out games remains elusive. The loss extends their home losing streak against Kansas City to 11 games.

Los Angeles did capitalize on two Chiefs turnovers — a fumble by Carson Steele and Mahomes’ fifth interception of the season — converting them into 10 points. But they couldn’t build on it.

The Chargers went three-and-out on four of their eight drives in the last three quarters. They had a chance to seize the lead early in the fourth quarter after driving to the Kansas City 3-yard line, but on fourth-and-1, Herbert’s pass intended for Hayden Hurst fell incomplete under heavy pressure from Chris Jones and Felix Anudike-Uzomah.

After a strong start to the season on the ground, the Chargers’ running game has evaporated. They managed just 55 rushing yards, averaging a mere 2.3 yards per carry.

Herbert was sacked twice by Jones and took 10 hits on 31 dropbacks. While he started hot, completing all seven of his first-quarter passes, he cooled off considerably, connecting on just 9 of 20 attempts the rest of the game.

Broncos Cruise Against Raiders

Meanwhile, in Denver, the Broncos put on a show in a 34-18 victory over the injury-plagued Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. Pat Surtain II highlighted the game with two interceptions, including a 100-yard pick-six that erased an early 10-0 deficit. His second interception set up another touchdown, helping Denver end an eight-game losing streak against their division rivals.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix, coming off a lackluster outing against the Jets, had a breakout game with two touchdown passes after entering the contest with just one on the season. He also scrambled for a score as the Broncos rattled off 34 unanswered points.

Nix spread the ball to a franchise-record 11 different receivers, completing 19 of 27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns without turning the ball over. This marked Denver’s first win over the Raiders since December 29, 2019.

First-year starter Riley Moss also made an impact, picking off Gardner Minshew for his first career interception, adding to his resume after recording his first career fumble recovery last week and a forced fumble the week prior.

Key Matchups

This AFC West clash features two teams desperately searching for momentum. The Chargers are coming off a narrow loss where their offense sputtered, while the Broncos broke a losing streak against the Raiders thanks to a rejuvenated defensive effort and a breakout performance from Nix. 

Justin Herbert vs. Broncos’ Secondary

Herbert has been under duress for most of the season, and his performance has reflected the lack of protection. After a fast start, Herbert’s efficiency has dipped, and he’s facing a Broncos secondary that’s coming off a game-changing effort against Las Vegas. Surtain is emerging as a true shutdown corner and will likely shadow the Chargers’ top target, Ladd McConkey.

If Herbert can’t find time in the pocket, it’ll be tough to generate big plays against Denver’s opportunistic back end. This matchup could hinge on how well the Chargers’ offensive line handles Denver’s pass rush, which has been inconsistent but capable of taking over games when they’re on.

Chargers’ Run Game vs. Broncos’ Defensive Front

Los Angeles has struggled to find a consistent ground game, managing just 55 yards in their last contest. The Broncos’ run defense has shown some cracks but held strong when needed.

If the Chargers can establish the run early and avoid putting all the pressure on Herbert, it’ll open up the play-action game and slow down Denver’s pass rush. However, if the Broncos can limit the run and pin their ears back on third downs, the Chargers’ offensive struggles could continue.

Bo Nix vs. Chargers’ Defense

After a rocky start to his career, Nix put together his best performance yet against the Raiders, throwing for 206 yards and two touchdowns while running for another. The Chargers’ defense, led by Minter, has been solid but can only bend so much if the offense isn’t sustaining drives.

Expect Nix to challenge them with a balanced attack, using his legs to buy time and finding soft spots in the secondary. If the Chargers can pressure Nix into early mistakes, they could force Denver into a one-dimensional offense.

Red Zone Efficiency

Neither team has been particularly efficient in the red zone, and this game could come down to which squad can convert opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.

The Chargers have struggled on fourth downs in critical spots, while Denver showed improvement last week, scoring on four consecutive red zone trips. With two defenses that stiffen up near the goal line, cashing in on these chances will be crucial.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Denver’s victory on Sunday was fueled by defensive scores and short fields created by turnovers. The Chargers, on the other hand, have been hit-and-miss in taking care of the football, and special teams have been a weak point. A blocked punt or a key takeaway could swing momentum in a game that figures to be close throughout.

The Pick

The Chargers’ inability to protect Herbert and establish any rhythm on offense will keep this game tighter than it should be. Meanwhile, Nix’s mobility and the Broncos’ balanced approach will allow Denver to keep the Chargers’ defense guessing. Expect the game to be a back-and-forth affair with both teams making big plays on defense and special teams.

Ultimately, the Chargers’ superior quarterback play will give them a slight edge, but it won’t be easy. Herbert will need to overcome constant pressure and lean on quick passes to his secondary targets to sustain drives. Denver’s improved defensive play will keep it close, but the Chargers should squeak out a narrow victory.

NFL Pick: Chargers -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Chargers -3 (-108)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.